“True Sciences predict the future of its species, according to Past Cycles, controlling them, to improve human life.’
In the graph, the Industrial Evolution follows a 72 ±7 years generational cycle of evolution and overproduction of energies and machines, the famous ‘Kondratieff’ cycle1,2 in which a nation discovers a new form of energy (white) applied then to the creation of new forms of money, the informative software of the economy, and new machines/weapons (red), its hardware, used by the dominant nation of each cycle to conquer the world.
The Origin of the cycle is biological (the life-span of a human being divided in 3 ‘generations’ of grand-parents, sons and grand-sons that carry the discovery and evolution of each duplet of new energies and machines to its completion). But the purpose of the cycle is ‘memetic’ – the evolution of selfish memes of metal’, weapons, money and machines, which is the purpose of our ‘technological’ civilization.
This crisis is the transitional crisis between the final age of chips, when its overproduction causes and excess of e-money (financial crisis) and chip workers (white collar pcs and blue collar robots) that throw workers out of jobs, and the beginning of the age of robotics, now in its military phase, cause of the parallel multiplication of military conflicts fought with drones.
This Blog based in my pioneer books on eco(nomic)systems that forecasted the crisis 20 years in advance, in the milieu of systems sciences and theory of information, will study the entire process of evolution of ‘memes of metal’, connecting the Kondratieff cycles of evolution of machines with the long cycles of classic history and biological evolution that preceded them, on the planet Earth, fusioning for the first time in social sciences all the different elements and disciplines of the human experience, from biology to art, from history to economics.
In the graph, we have plotted all those cycles, departing from its initial point, the discovery of a new form of mechanical energy, steam machines:
—Thus, we had a peaceful, ‘consumer’ age of steam machines, the age of England, between 1780s and 1857, followed by a crisis of overproduction of steam machines and stock-money that brought the 1857±7 years crashes of the train-based economy, due to the saturation of consumption markets that reduced profits, and a massive wave of unemployment, as the biggest job markets of the time – transportation and textiles – were sharply reduced by the competition of steam factories and trains, which absorbed all the credit of the economy, reducing investment in agriculture and welfare goods (Irish Famine, Indian ruin by British Cloths etc).
Then the crisis was solved with the Colonial age of yellow press, racist wars and the British and French Empires that ‘exported’ the surplus of human labor to the 3rd World.
—From 1857 to 1929, we lived the peaceful, ‘consumer’ age of electro-chemical energies, machines and chemistry, discovered by Germany, followed by the 1929 crash of overproduction of cars and radios, exactly 72 years after the 1857 crash, due to the saturation of markets that reduced profits and a wave of unemployment caused by mobile assembly lines that reduced to 1/2 the work force of factories and their consuming power.
And again the crisis was solved first in Germany and Japan, then in the rest of the world, with hate-radio speeches and switching overproduction to armored cars and planes= tanks and bombers, that brought II W.W. in which a surplus of 66 million workers were consumed with enormous profits for the corporations.
—It came then from 1929-2001, the US age, the cycle of peaceful, ‘consumer’ electronic machines, e-money and audiovisual media, ended 72+7 years after 1929 with the overproduction crashes of chips and e-money in 2001-08 (dotcoms, cdos), which saturated consumption markets, reducing profits and displacing hundreds of millions of workers worldwide, substituted by white collar pcs and blue collar robots.
And again the crisis is being solved NOT for the benefit of the 99% of mankind, as a serious science of economics would do, but under ideologies of financial power (classic economics) for the 1% of corporative owners, with an age of hate TV (Islamophobia, immigrant bashing), Digital weapons (military robots & internet big brother) and e-money derivatives that have increased enormously the profits of electronic, financial and industrial corporations 100 folding the invention of e-money – a digital language of information easily reproduced in electronic screens.
So as the new white collar Pcs and blue collar robots expel human workers and soldiers from labor and war fields increasing the ‘productivity’ of machines and the profits of corporations, we enter in a new ’30s’, neofascist age with the difference that unlike the previous ages, when the socialist school (Marx, Kondratieff) clarified perfectly the nature of overproduction crises, and the 30s when the Keynesian school explained it and gave solutions, as today the ‘3rd age of scientific economics’, systems sciences that describe the eco(nomic)system and forecasted this crisis and its solutions long ago, is totally ignored.
Instead economists multiply their ‘thin air speeches’, damned lies and statistics hiding the true causes of the crisis of unemployment (blue collar robots and white collar pcs) and the existential crisis this process will bring to mankind.
A fundamental theme of this blog (left column) will be the study of those cycles, its overproduction crises, and the causal comparison of its main nodes, as we have done in the milieu of systems sciences, forecasting the present crisis of overproduction of chips, 20 years in advance3 with an accuracy and detail still unknown to my knowledge in books written today that go no further than the anecdote of the mortgage crisis. Forecasting is indeed the key element of a scientific true model, as all sciences predict the future observing the patterns of past cycles.
The biological, human-caused periodicity of the cycles.
All those phases of the Industrial Evolution of machines have had in fact 3 ‘organic ages’: the young age of ‘discovery of a new energy, soon applied to simple ‘bombs’ and the powering of the machines of the eco(nomic)system, ushering societies into a happy age of consumption machines.
Yet according to biological laws the cycles end when the evolution and reproduction of mechanisms reaches its zenith, in a massive global crisis of overproduction of those machines, converted into the most perfect mechanical species, the weapon, which in a global war phase murders millions of life beings.
And this 3 ‘mechanical ages’ proper of the morphological evolution of those machines by imitating the human functions=organs and improving upon them, are paralleled in the human sphere by 3 ‘generational ages’ of societies adapted in memes and actions to those machines-weapons.
In the graph, the British steam age of huge ‘bodies of metal, steamers and iron horses’, German age of electro-mechanical engines discovered by Otto and Siemens, applied to cars, tanks and bombers and the electronic American cycle now in its 3rd military phase:
In the graph, we combine both symbiotic cycles, the human and metal-ones.
The periodicity of those cycles can be easily tabulated with quantitative methods; as it corresponds to the 72-80 years ‘standard’ biological, generational cycle of life and death of human beings, the discoverers or inventors of those machines.
Kondratieff, the Russian Scholar (in the background of the graph), killed by Stalin, who found those cycles however studied a shorter 50 period, as Russia was an undeveloped country where the train came latter in the cycle. So the cycle was shorter and Schumpeter, the Austrian economists that explain them, did not correct it.
In our section of general systems sciences we consider the biological basis of those phases of life. And study how the ‘new product cycles’ of electronic machines influence our present generations (We Generation, X-generation, Y-why? and Zero generations of mankind) as they atrophy and substitute human minds, creating the present world of children of thought, living a childish neoteny state, hypnotized by audiovisual machines that form the ‘matrix’ of delusional, virtual thought they care for (internet generation).
The Graph shows those 4 national Generations who build metal-bodies, engines & metal minds assembled in robots:
– British generations, who used physical, steam energy to power metal bodies, trains & steamers & print stock-money, ended after the 1857-73 crashes in an age of racist yellow press & colonial wars.
– German generations of electro-chemical engines, hearts of metal that printed electric money, the software (ticker speculation) and powered cars and planes, the hardware, ended in Nazism
– American age in which electronic systems printed e-money, the software and evolved ‘Minds of metal’; mobile-ears, cameras-eyes and chips brains now in its decadent ‘Weimar Republic’, when bankers keep printing money for themselves, militarism is on the rage and all ethic and social standards have plummeted as ‘monetary and military values’, the values of greed and violence provoked in man by the hypnotism of money and the use of weapons, reach its ‘overproduction zenith’.
– This zenith is the inaugural time for an new brave world, an age of robots & singularity weapons when all those parts are put together into organic machines, completing the industrial evolution of metal. It’s the last cycle that must be aborted for life to survive, designing instead an eco(nomic)system that switches production to welfare goods.
Accordingly as the mind of metal, the chip, evolve. as robotic weapon, vigilante camera, white collar pcs and blue collar robots, expelling human labor and making consumers and workers obsolete to automated factories, during this overproduction crisis of chips, we can predict the last cycle of the Industrial Evolution:
Scientists call the arrival of Artificial Intelligence, the Singularity moment, when robots, which can use solar energy to become autonomous will complete the evolution of machines as organic forms, automating factories & expelling most human workers and soldiers from labor and war fields, as previous revolutions did with obsolete 3rd World non-technological humans, unless we forbid legally their evolution. They also called black holes -planetary bombs that can blow entire stars as they are self-feeding nuclear bombs – singularities. And nuclear physicists are researching this 3rd horizon of nuclear weapons (after the A-Bomb and the H-bomb) at CERN, with the excuse of knowledge, and could therefore extinguish mankind within a decade even before robots take over.
Since in the Universe we neither perceive carbonlife intelligence or A.I. robots, who would have invaded the entire galaxy (this is called the Fermi paradox, because Fermi who manufactured the first A-Bomb said after seeing the explosion that the paradox of a galaxy without intelligent life could only be explained considering that the evolution of nuclear weapons blowed them all), and cosmologists believe the Universe is made to create black holes, this is as today the most likely reason of our extinction, within decades, as CERN keeps exploring bigger energies to manufacture those B.H. (7).