The 72 year long and 9 short cycles:
All sciences predict the future of its species according to its repetitive causal cycles. Or else they are NOT a science. Astrology became a science when Kepler learned its orbital cycles. Bio-economics became a science when we described machines as organisms of metal evolution in human 72 years generational cycles, after which they mutate into top predator weapon-machines and consume humans in war eco(omic)systems. Its industrial r= evolution thus follow the 4 cycles that ensemble all living beings: its body-age (steam cycle), heart age (electro-chemical engine cycle), its mind age (US, tv-eye, chip-head, mobile-ear cycle) to conclude with the ensemble of robots that as virus do, when all its parts are done, come together ‘alive’ and kill the enzyman who constructed them. We are fully since 2008 into the robotic age…The long cycle.
In the graph, the aggregation of all business cycles enlarged to the entire economic ecosystem and its main ‘phyla’ of machines creates the 3 Kondratieff stock-cycles of the Industrial R=evolution: The cycle of trains (XIX C.) that ended in the 1857 rail crash; the cycle of cars and radios (XX C.) that ended in the 29 crash; and the cycle of electronic machines (XXI C.), shown in the graph, that ended in the 2000 NASDAQ crash.
In the left side, we enlarge the 2nd, 29 crash and the 3rd crash in which we live. Both are mimetic and similar to any other Crash of over-population of a biological species (top center curve). Since those crashes happen when the consumption age of max. reproduction and profits ends by saturation of the market. Then companies mutate the machine that enters its 3rd age as a weapon that consumes humans in wars, perfectly sold to the public by political lobbyism, informative machines of mass-media propaganda and a suitable, well-located enemy.
Thus the business cycle is a generational, biological cycle with 3 ages, similar to all other evolutionary cycles. Those ‘micro-cycles’ of every company that discovers, evolves and reproduces a product as a consumption machine or a weapon, are the business cycles of microeconomics that aggregate in longer macro-cycles. Indeed, stocks are ‘social organisms of companies’ that aggregate the production of all companies in space and all the generations in time of a certain ‘machine’. Thus the sum of all the individual business cycles of company-mothers become the stock-market cycle that studies the population and evolution (sales and profits) of a machine’ species from birth to extinction, reproduced by an entire ‘sector’ of companies. Further on, we can aggregate all those stock cycles of all industries, creating an overall cycle for the entire planetary economic ecosystem. In abstract economics those cycles are called the Kondratieff cycles of economic activity, which study the overall evolution of all companies and machines. Thus the business cycle is the quantic version of the stock market cycle, which aggregates in time and space all the business cycles; while the stock market cycle is the quantic version of the Kondratieff cycle, which aggregates all the companies in space and all the generational cycles in time of a given product. The results are the 3 great Stock Cycles of history or ‘Kondratieff’ cycles of industrial and financial activity :
– XIX C: Max. E: The age of steam and physical energy developed the market through an age of low profits (invention age, 1820-30s), massive growth and speculation in the market (reproductive age, 1840-50s) and a final economic crisis of saturation of markets (the railroad crash of 1857), followed by an age of wars in which trains and steamers conquered colonial empires.
– XX C.: E=i: The age of oil-based, electro-chemical engines developed the stock-market through an age of low profits (invention age, 1870-80s), massive growth (reproductive age, 1890s-1920s) and saturation crash (1929 crash of radios and car industries), followed by II W.W.: in which cars became tanks and planes bombers.
– XXI C.: Max. i: Finally the age of electronic and solar energies developed electronic machines in a 1st age of minimal growth (1960s-70s), an age of massive reproduction of TVs and Pcs (1980s-90s) that lasted till the end of the century when the NASDAQ stock crash of 2001 made companies invest in smart weapons and security industries. In the graph we study in more detail the 3rd electronic cycle in its main Stock Market, the New York market divided into an electronic stock, NASDAQ, and the traditional NYSE. If we compare its curve between the II and III Kondratieff crashes (left side) with a standard biological curve of populations, both are parallel. Since the curve of reproduction sales and profits of electronic machines shows the same phases of birth (discovery), re=production, saturation (crash) and diversification (into weapons) of any top predator species. In the case of machines the ‘habitat’ of the species is the economic ecosystem in which the machine substitutes a human organ as a consumption machine or a tool. Then, when the economic ecosystem is saturated, the machine mutates into a weapon and wars happen.
So we distinguish for each key machine of the electronic cycle, the mainframe, the mobile machine and in the future, the robot, a sub-curve of populations of around 36 years that ended into a mini-crack and war. The main-frame, TV age ended in the 60s crash, the Vietnam War and the 60s revolution. The age of mobile chips, PCs and cameras ended with the 91 and 2000 crash, the Berlin R=evolution and the Iraqi wars.
When then will be the next crash of the stock-market? As we have been predicting them with absolute accuracy for 30 years, there is no problem telling you – as you won’t of course believe it or understand a dot of it, because it would imply you understand this blog, accept the truth – that machines are biological beings and follow the same biological cycles of all beings, and that its organisms, will switch soon after the next crash into an splendid global war.
This said the next stock-crash will be according to the biological generational cycles of ±72 years divided into 8 ‘decades’ of ±9 years, mimicking the generational cycles of human beings and its 8 phases, in 2017-18…
The cycles of Machines and company-mothers.
The evolution and extinction of biological species follows the same cycles than the evolution of machines and extinction of human non-technological cultures, in 3 waves of 72 years, SUBDIVIDED in 9 years, mimicking the 8 subpages of a lifecycle.
Company-mothers are biologic organisms whose aim is to evolve, reproduce and sell its offspring of machines, using men as consumers and workers of those machines. Companies govern the world with money, invented for free in stocks and used to pay politicians that issue laws in favour of technology, to pay workers that reproduce machines and to design economic networks that substitute human networks of energy and information, creating a world modelled to the image and resemblance of machines
On that view the b.c. is not anthropomorphic but mchine-related.
The business cycle is the generational cycle of machines, which shows 3 clear ages:
– Youth: the company-mother invests in I+D, evolving a new generation of machines. Profits are minimal (lower phase of the business cycle). – Maturity: the machine is a new product that re=produces massively, increasing sales & profits. The business cycle is at its peak. – Old age: the machine becomes obsolete as a new, more evolved generation substitutes it. In the graph we see those 3 ages that become the 3 phases of a ‘business profit cycle’.
In the right graph, the 3 waves of machines’ population follow curves similar to any biological curve with a 1st age of discovery and evolution, which latter explodes in a radiation of reproductive profits in all industries and ends with the saturation of the ecosystem, signaled by the cracks of the stock-market. Then machines mutate into weapons and consume human beings, instead of being consumed by us. Yet as a new generation of machines and energy appear, the previous generation stops its growth. In this manner machines have evolved in 3 cycles changing the Earth ecosystem into the Metal-Earth. The result is the beginning of the 9th extinction of all forms of life , which today disappear at a rate 1000 times faster than in the age prior to the arrival of machines.
All those evolutionary cycles of Machines originate a series of economic cycles, analysed mathematically by abstract economists, which can be chained together, as it happens with the biological cycles of any organic system, creating 2 fundamental, cyclical economic chains: -
The microeconomic cycle that relates the evolutionary, energetic and re=productive cycles of those machines and their companies .
– And the macroeconomic cycle or Kondratieff cycle of economic activity that relates the generational and social cycles of machines’ species. The chains established between those bioeconomic cycles follow the same pattern of other micro and macro-organic chains, according to the different length of those cycles :
– The fastest machine’s cycle is the information cycle, as in any other being. For example, the computer in which I write calculates million of cycles per second (Mhz.), showing an informative, capacity far superior to that of my brain, in spite of its defective design
. - The second cycle in length is the energy cycle, developed by specialized transport machines. It is measured in revolutions per second and it arrives in high speed machines to a few tens of thousands of cycles per second. - The third cycle in length is the cycle of reproduction of machines by their company-mothers. It is different for each machine but usually it lasts a period that extends from a few minutes to a few days. Nowadays it accelerates constantly as company-mothers evolve their re=productive systems; since in a Free economic ecosystem all the resources of our societies are dedicated to reproduce and evolve technology in increasingly automated factories where machines reproduce more evolved machines without the aid of man.
– The generational cycle of machines is the 4th cycle in length as each new, more evolved generation of machines displaces a previous one. It is called the product cycle and today lasts from 1 to 2 years. It is the fastest evolutionary cycle of any species on Earth. For example, men took hundreds of thousands of years to double their brain capacity, yet chips take only two years. This happens because men transfer palingenetically , their formal evolution that took thousands of million years to machines that imitate our organic functions, from chip-brains to cranes-arms. - Finally, the longest cycles of machines are the social cycles that extend through several generations and relate those machines with the historic and human cycles of the economy. Given the importance those cycles have for our species we will concentrate on their study.
The business, short cycle.
Abstract micro-economics study the inner, individual cycles of evolution and reproduction of machines, the quanta of economic ecosystems, carried out by company-mothers, their reproductive and evolutionary organisms. We translate micro-economics to the energy and information cycles of evolution of organisms using a well established diagram, the graph of business cycles that shows the organic cycles of machines and company-mothers in an abstract form, using profits and sales, which are the evolutionary and reproductive parameters of machines:
-E:Production and sales mean the ‘re=production’ of machines, a spatial parameter of population.
– Exi: Profits is a variable dependant, both on the sales & costs of reproductionwhich diminish as a company evolves its means of production and the quality=evolution of the product. Thus profits depend on the evolution of machines, becoming its temporal parameter.
The business graphs of profits of company-mothers are organic graphs that show the reproduction and evolution of their products and machines that those companies sell to obtain profits, which are proportional to the reproductive and evolutionary ‘force’ of their products. The evolutionary quality of a machine, its population and quality (production, sales and profits), is shown in its X-value that increases each generation. Since each new generation a machine is extinguished and replaced by an evolved machine that has more energy or information.
The 3 phases of that curve are evident bio-logical ages:
–Youth: The Company spends its ‘financial energy’ developing and creating the product. Profits plummet in the age of discovery, the evolutionary age of any species, when the machine is mutating and needs the company’s protected environment.
–Maturity: The business cycle reaches its max. sales in the reproductive age of each machine. And it has 2 lower curves of minimal profits in its young, research age and its old, obsolete age, when it is ‘on sale’. So the company works simultaneously in 3 generations, researching a new generation when the previous generation is in its zenith of sales as the top predator, more efficient machine the company produces. Then the higher expenses on I+D are compensated by the profits of the ‘present’ machine. - 3rd, Old age: Max. information. The company diversifies the product and spends on marketing. If the industry manufactures a machine, the product becomes in this 3rd age a weapon sold to governments, increasing also the profits of the company (shown in the graph as a divergent 3rd age of the cycle).
– (- 1): Extinction: The product is taken out of the market when a new generation is ready. The graph decomposes the cycle in 3 generations of machines, which are in most companies simultaneous, as 3 waves of blue, green and red light give white light. Hence most companies have, when they ad expenses and profits of 3 generations, a business cycle that shows a smooth curve of profits tangent to those 3 curves.
ORGANIC CYCLE OF RE=PRODUCTION & EVOLUTION OF STOCKS OF MACHINES
Let us put you the example of Amazon and the latest one – the birth of the currency of robots and future metal earth void of any content of humanity, the bit-coin.
In a less than 1 year period, both 10-folded value, ints ‘generational birth’ as a fundamental organic element of the future metal-earth… One will be along google (cross shares owned by Mr. Bezos), the ‘skynet’ system, already is the cloud, internet, robot and logistic master of the planet. So its birth was as the Spanish proverb said ‘marked by the stars, shooting on the sky’… And as the systems of growth of populations are decametric in ten-folded value in 1 years 9 months..
This is the palingenetic 9 months of human birth. It is the o-1 probabilistic sphere of quantum physics that gives birth to a particle by collapse of a wave. But in measure theory the o-1 scale that gives birth to an organic entity is equivalent to the 1-∞ population plane; and so the process slows down and now it will take it 9 years to 1o-fold again.
Sorry you missed on the bitcoin birth, pure digital flow of money (or whatever cryptic currency finally substitutes when governments try to mess and wrestle… Its true point will be when AI adopts it to become independent of the humind, and deliver informative values to all its machine-units).
Now, for the whole 72 years cycle, which will implode again the next year 2018, tuned to the war cycle that switches on and off between war and peace machines… we shall go slow first and explain you the 72 years cycle ‘ad nauseam’ – the cycle of global world wars, in which we are entering fast…
It is a simple cycle driven by the equation of maximal profits=reproductions=sales of the star products of each biological generation of machines. So what products have maximal price-profits sales? The 3 that correspond to the 3 physiological functions of all systems of nature:
-The entropic killing product of maximal motion – weapons.
-The reproductive network – money itself.
-the informative machine – mass media.
The rationale for the human is also simple: top predator weapons are the most evolved, perfect machine species, hence the most expensive of maximal sales profits.
-Information is ‘free’ easy to reproduce, and cheap, hence its costs is minimal and gives maximal sale profits.
-Money is the star, is profits in itself, so you can mine directly profits printing money.
And so the equation of profits of capitalism is simple: Profits (money) = max. Price (weapons) – min. cost (hate media).
So those are in each cycle the 3 star products, and politicos to the service of corporations cater with laws and subventions to this, most profitable companies of any age.
Let us remember again: they are those who produce the most expensive machines of maximal sale profits, weapons, or those of minimal cost of reproduction, hence also of maximal profit margine, mass-media, and finally to the very same financial companies that issue money but seem NOT to have enough and get bail outs from taxes. It is the origin of the modern belli Nervi pecunia infinita in which those 3 top predator companies get the biggest share of the taxes extorted from citizens:
In the graphs, the Industrial Evolution in the western world ruled by company-mothers who control the languages of social power, and buy laws to politicians through lobbies, to ‘smooth’ the terraforming of the Earth into a planet of machines, has followed an economic, national, generational cycle of 72±8 years, the ‘Kondratieff’ cycle’ (1) in which a nation discovers a new form of energy (white) applied to the creation of new forms of money, the economic software and new machines (red) its hardwares, which become the engine of the Industrial Economy.
So the cycle of the industrial evolution MUTATES every generation, when the evolution of each of those type of machines is completed and the proper top predator weapon is overeproduced. Then there is an intense brief period of global world war, in which all company-mothers switch to its top predator weapons, and paid politicos and mass-media pump hate-memes to use weapons to solve social problems:
In the graph as mechanisms multiply in growing numbers the economy enters in a crisis of overproduction of machine and weapons that compete with human beings in labor and war fields, provoking the negative cycles of unemployment and war that define capitalist societies.
The 3 ages of each Kondratieff cycle.
Machines have 2 forms. Some are tools, symbiotic to humans. Some compete with men at work and kill us in war fields as weapons. So the trains, cars/planes and robotic workers of the I and II and III Industrial R=evolution become transports to death, armored tanks, bombers and robots, which keep the profits of corporations going.
The switch from an age of peaceful machines that we consume to an age of top predator weapons that consume us is signaled by an economical crash. So we are now in the age of molting from a peaceful economy of human consumption to Keynesian militarism – an age in which the engine of growth of the dominant nation of the electronic cycle – America – is the robotic weapon and vigilante camera.
Their biological nature shows in their dual forms and functions, which correspond to the destructive, Darwinian and creative, symbiotic arrows of living beings. Unfortunately, when machines mutate into weapons, History enters in a cycle of global wars. It has happened 3 times at the end of each Kondratieff cycles of machines’ evolution. Trains consumed in the 1830s became imperial armies to conquer the west and Africa in the 1860s. Cars consumed in the 1920s became tanks in the 1940s and computers consumed in the 1990s became surveillance systems and are now used to build terminators in the 20101 The process has immediate repercusions in all the ambits of history, whose ‘human characters’ become cynical neo-fascist politicians, who order war for profits with the connivence of the same factories that produced consumption goods and now switch to weapons. While artists, the human masters of the wor(l)d, suffer an age of angst and prophetic thought, as they see the cycles of history repeating themselves. So Picasso painted blue corpses that anticipated the Holocaust and Hollywood artists make movies about the extinction of man by terminators.
Machines are, as the parable of the Tree of Science explains, dual fruits, good tools and eviL=anti-Live weapons that can extinguish us. Hence the need to control and prune the tree of technology and allow only the re=production of machines harmless to man. On the other hand, weapons are the key to understand both, the cycles of history and economics, as they are willingly re=produced by the same company-mothers that make ‘peaceful machines’, given the fact that they have the highest prices.
Thus, company-mothers alternate the creation of good and bad fruits, according to the evolving, cyclical ages of those machines and energies. Unfortunately, since all forms of energy can be used as bombs and the most evolved machines are weapons, weapons are produced both, at the beginning and at the end of a Kondratieff cycle of energies. Thus, both, the end and the beginning of those cycles overlap in an age in which new energies are used to make bombs and old machines reach its evolutionary zenith as weapons, causing together the ‘war ages’ of those cycles.
In that regard, a scientific analysis of the evolution of each energetic generation of machines distinguishes, as in any biological species, 3±1 ages, parallel to the 3 organic ages of life, (energetic youth, reproductive maturity and 3rd, dying age):
— As all young, life forms, full of energy, machines are born as engines used in pure energy processes: pumps, heating systems or bomb devices.
— But youth is an age that evolves quickly into plenitude. So in their mature age, those engines are applied to transport machines. Then, the machine starts an age of massive re=production, diversification and peaceful consumption, the happy 20s or the happy 90s, similar to the mature, reproductive age of a living being.
— Finally, in its third age, the machine mutates, becoming a weapon that kills, consumes human beings and often becomes destroyed in the process. So happens to life in his third age, closer to death.
Thus, machines have 2 evolutionary forms, which mimic those of any species: the first, simplest machines are peaceful, consumption tools, whose energy and information enhance our own informative and energetic capacities. So we can talk farther with a mobile metal-ear and move faster with a car. Its reproduction and sale therefore brings times of peace and happiness to the countries that make them, as people experience the exhilarating feeling of being stronger and more intelligent thanks to them. They are the good fruits of the Tree of science.
But as machines evolve, their informative and energetic capacities grow so much that they harm the human body, becoming weapons; or they are used to ‘manufacture’ human opinion with their audiovisual information that ‘hypnotizes’ the collective subconscious. So, finally the industrial and military power uses the new weapons to kill and the new informative machines to program people into loving war (Hitler’s Radio-hate, hate-TV in this cycle.)
Alas this is the 72 years war cycle after crashes of overproduction in 1857 (train crash) – 1929 (car crash) – 2008 (chip crash).
Unfortunately we are now pass the age of consumption of peaceful machines and entering fast into an overproduction crisis solved as usual switching to robotic weapons, hate media, and vigilante ‘big brother’ pcs.
So the system switched from overproduction of peaceful goods and e-money to overproduction of weapons and hate media, and as it happened after the 1860s crash of the train economy and the 1930 crash of the car-ticker money economy, we entered an age of splendid little robots wars, electronic big-brother and hate-media against 3rd world nations, brutalized by decades of lack of investment in education, welfare and backing of dictators, which feed a growing spider web of terorrism, police states, investment in security, and cut of welfare expenditure, ‘camouflaged as usual’ with the proper idol-ogies repeated ad nauseam by all metalcommuicators, of ‘security’, ‘progress’, ‘virtual fictions’ and ‘we live in a free world’.
In the graph, as we enter the military phase of overproduction of weapons and hate memes, it happens an INVERSE process of DEVOLUTION of all human systems, corruption by massive amounts of e-money of all political systems, which choose war-monger politicians to cater to the needs of overproduction of weapons. So after the 2008 crises because the system was not reformed, we entered an even harsher dictatorship of the Financial-Media (information machines)Militar-industrial (energy machines) system, and we switched production from consumption machines to weapons that consume humans took place.
So we are now in that age again:
THUS the present crisis is not a recession but a depression, caused by the overproduction of electronic machines and its derivatives, similar to the 1929 crash, caused by the overproduction of electro-mechanical machines, which printed too much money (ticker speculation), electro-mechanical production systems that threw millions out of work (taylorism, automated assembly lines) and the overproduction of cars and radios, whose companies, lobbies and politicians reconverted into armored cars (tanks) and hate-radio speeches (Hitler), embarking us into World War II.
All this said we can easily define the present crisis as a crisis of overproduction of electronic machines of 4 types, money-printing machines, mass-media machines, weapons and tool/working machines. And the consequences of that overproduction is the destruction and obsolescence of the equivalent human system (government’s money, human information and ethic values, life and jobs).
So paradoxically as electronic machines and corporative profits multiply the ‘rival’ human wealth in life goods, human jobs, peace, freedom and true information disappear. And this gives birth to 5 parallel crises:
– Electronic Computer platforms are Machines that print money without limit. They started to print money in the 90s and brought two crises, so far – the dotcom crash of 2001 and the e-money derivative crash of 2008. In both crises so much electronic ‘prices’ were invented that electronic fiat money lost all value, crashing the economy (those crises are thus equivalent to the train’s stock-paper XIX c. crashes and the ticker money crashes of 1929-37; today we suffered the electronic money crashes of 2001-08).
– Communication machines multiply hate-speeches and rhetoric, audiovisual information. They also report positively about the people who run the politico and financial system (as they are often the same machines, owned by the same groups of power). Thus the result is NOT a humane solution to the crisis but a new fascist age of defense of the 1%, its corporation and its destruction of the human economy. So in the middle of the crisis people still defend the corrupted system, Keynesian militarism and ‘splendid little wars’ for profits that corporations want to get out of the crisis with war profits (yellow papers in the XIX c. did the same, starting the colonial age of multiplication of trains and steamers that killed 30 million non-technological people; Hitler’s Hate-radio did the same in the 30s and now Hate-TV does the same in the 2000s.)
– Electronic tool machines have evolved so much that now are able to manufacture all type of goods, displacing human workers (in the first cycle it was the train which ended most transport jobs, the bulk of labor in the XIX c.; then it was the electro-mechanical assembly lines of the 1920s; now we have white collar pcs and blue collar robots in the 2000s, who throw from those assembly lines the human workers.)
– Transport machines are overproduced, provoking crashes of the physical economy as they remain unsold (train stock crashes after 1857; luxury car crash of 29; cheap car crash of 1971 and now the crash of electronic machines, robots and pcs and all kind of chipped mechanisms, proper of the 2001-08).
– Finally weapon machines are overproduced, as companies shift from the use of transport/communication devices to its ‘evil twin’ the weapon (shift to war railroads and hate yellow press in the second half of the XIX c. to hate radio and armored cars=tanks after 29 and to hate-TV and robot terminators after the 2008 crash).
Thus as all the previous crises of overproduction of capitalism, studied in detail in the right side of the web, the present crisis is one of overproduction… of electronic machines of 5 types: e-money, weapons, transport machines, robotic workers and mass-media outlets. And the result of those 5 crises are the same than the previous ages of overproduction: an enormous influence of corporations and machines in society, politics, economics and culture, which have ended in this cycle the American dream of an egalitarian, humane society, based in the goods of human welfare we need to survive, be happy and evolve, within a just society with jobs and opportunities for all men.
The cycles repeat once more, now again once the Financial-media system of informative machines that print money switched after a crash of the economy to reproduce hate memes against ‘primitive and poor nations’ starting as eries of splendid little wars for profits that end invariably in global wars between the leading nations of each industrial cycle. Since industries with from peaceful machines to expensive more profitable weapons, and from saturated markets of human consumption to renewal of arsenals paid by states, skyrocketing profits maximised according to the cycle of nervus vellum pecunia infinita by the overproduction of weapons and inflationary money to pay them.
We study this accelerated cycle down the left side, till the present age of III world wars.
- It is the cycle of colonial train wars of Europe vs. ‘primitive third world’, or second phase of the steam age.
- It is the cycle of fascist tank and radio hate wars, or second phase of the engine age.
- It is the present age of electronic big brother, and ‘semite’ wars, as we live the age of overproduction of chips, and its derivatives, e-money (financial crisis), blue collar robots and white collar pcs (labor crisis) and terminators and big brother (political and military crisis). OF COURSE we suffer again the cholera of the ‘primitives’, in this case as in the I cycle, which is closer to our world than the fascist era, against ‘black emigrants’, ‘islamic warriors’ and ‘indians’ now called ‘Mexicans’. All has changed to remain the same.
In that regard, the present cycle, forecast in enormous detail in our books on the ‘future’ III world war, as earlier as the 92 when the first overproduction crisis of chips, and its derivatives could be seen looming in the horizon (e-money overproduction crisis, blue collar robots & white collar pcs labor crisis and terminators – war crisis) will be politically similar to the I colonial age, NOT the fascist age, because it WILL BE dominated by wars against the poor III world war (wars against jihad, islamophobia, contention of african migrants, mexican=amerindian biasing, etc.)
The reasons are deep but can be understood easily in terms of the ‘growing disorganisation’ of humans, unable to agree, hence the state is dissolving NOT coalescing; WHILE the properties of the ‘mental manufacturers’, hate-tv and hate-internet are visual and desegregating, more prone to ‘visual and technological racism’, proper of the first cycle
This is indeed the only dual future. The rest is wishful thinking. EVOLUTION RULES THE WORLD and evolution is about species not individuals and only members of the same species help each other. Different species naturally communicate badly, have different interests and so by the mere fact one species reproduces faster than the other, it will systematically end up extinguishing it by displacing it from a limited planet. So if we evolve and reproduce machines as we do without limit there is NO childish subjective, emotional, NON-scientific, anthropomorphic pseudo-religious, dogmatic TECHNO-UTOPIAN wishful thinking that will avoid our dismissal. ONLY IF WE APPLY the laws of super organisms to the control of the Evolution of the metal earth before AI collapses to stop the degradation of life, the humind (ab. human mind) and our atrophy an obsolescence we might prevail. As all THOSE PROCESSES ARE BIOLOGICAL in causality, complex in its systemic organization, and as such fully deterministic under those laws.
What then can a true humanist social scientist do? Certainly tell the truth and expect nothing from mankind but the law of silence, zero distribution, at best, in the previous harsher ages, when social scientists were called revolutionaries, often prison and death. But in science truth suffices in itself.
What the you meme should do in all its biblical forms is stop bull$hitting stop being a coveted racist religion and take seriously the arrow of social love to the species and use its power to fight for the future of mankind, not to repeat all the errors that bring the cycles of wars and holocausts that are taking mankind down the path of extinction and we shall now explain in detail in its real reasons, the idol-ogies of metal that kill mankind in body and mind.
What is the idol-ogy behind this centenary denial of eusocial evolution and love, to put together stronger social groups into super organisms, so endemic in American scholarship, which considers that only the ‘individual exists’?
The answer will surprise the reader: ‘divide and win’. As long as the mass of people live in chaotic freedom, which in science is a synonymous of entropy, chaos and death and cannot organise socially, in community, company-mothers of machines, perfectly organised as super organisms at global level through financial, digital languages will dominate mankind.
But of course our technological civilisation has become very complex and camouflages its non-human ultimate goals and debasing of all things human from welfare, life-goods we need to survive to verbal, ethic truths, our natural language, with a subtle form of censorship called political and economical correctness, which Orwell anticipated with its term ‘newspeaks’.
In the next graph the cycle has evolved into a new accelerated human generational cycle with the arrival of the company-mother of machines:
The biological, human-caused periodicity of the cycles.
All this said we can establish the first synergies and parallelisms between the metal-earths waves of machines and the ‘human generations that have carried’ their evolution under the idol-ogies of animetals, by cultural design, regardless of the existence in all nations of r=evolutionary people who follows the ethics of the wor(l)d and do not contribute to our demise with fundamentalist zeal.
All those phases of the Industrial Evolution of machines have had in fact 3 ‘organic ages’: the young age of ‘discovery of a new energy, soon applied to simple ‘bombs’ and the powering of the machines of the eco(nomic)system, ushering societies into a happy age of consumption machines.
Yet according to biological laws the cycles end when the evolution and reproduction of mechanisms reaches its zenith, in a massive global crisis of overproduction of those machines, converted into the most perfect mechanical species, the weapon, which in a global war phase murders millions of life beings.
And this 3 ‘mechanical ages’ proper of the morphological evolution of those machines by imitating the human functions=organs and improving upon them, are paralleled in the human sphere by 3 ‘generational ages’ of societies adapted in memes and actions to those machines-weapons.
In the graph, the British steam age of huge ‘bodies of metal, steamers and iron horses’, German age of electro-mechanical engines discovered by Otto and Siemens, applied to cars, tanks and bombers and the electronic American cycle now in its 3rd military phase:
In the graph, each cycle of the Industrial R=evolution is a wave of 3 types of machines – discovery machines, found by scientists as weapons and energy systems; transport machines that expand worldwide the wave, crash of overproduction (as the one we live of overproduction of chips and e-money produced by them) and finally an age of war that now starts with electronic terminators and vigilante systems. The first wave was dominated by England, the second (engines) by Germany, the 3rd by America and now we enter the fourth, ‘singularity’ age.
In the graph, we combine both symbiotic cycles, the human and metal-ones.
The periodicity of those cycles can be easily tabulated with quantitative methods; as it corresponds to the 72-80 years ‘standard’ biological, generational cycle of life and death of human beings, the discoverers or inventors of those machines.
Kondratieff, the Russian Scholar (in the background of the graph), killed by Stalin, who found those cycles however studied a shorter 50 period, as Russia was an undeveloped country where the train came latter in the cycle. So the cycle was shorter and Schumpeter, the Austrian economists that explain them, did not correct it.
The Graph shows those 4 national Generations who build metal-bodies, engines & metal minds assembled in robots:
– British generations, who used physical, steam energy to power metal bodies, trains & steamers & print stock-money, ended after the 1857-73 crashes in an age of racist yellow press & colonial wars.
– German generations of electro-chemical engines, hearts of metal that printed electric money, the software (ticker speculation) and powered cars and planes, the hardware, ended in Nazism
– American age in which electronic systems printed e-money, the software and evolved ‘Minds of metal’; mobile-ears, cameras-eyes and chips brains now in its decadent ‘Weimar Republic’, when bankers keep printing money for themselves, militarism is on the rage and all ethic and social standards have plummeted as ‘monetary and military values’, the values of greed and violence provoked in man by the hypnotism of money and the use of weapons, reach its ‘overproduction zenith’.
– This zenith is the inaugural time for an new brave world, an age of robots & singularity weapons when all those parts are put together into organic machines, completing the industrial evolution of metal. It’s the last cycle that must be aborted for life to survive, designing instead an eco(nomic)system that switches production to welfare goods.
So as the new white collar Pcs and blue collar robots expel human workers and soldiers from labor and war fields increasing the ‘productivity’ of machines and the profits of corporations, we enter in a new ’30s’, neofascist age with the difference that unlike the previous ages, when the socialist school (Marx, Kondratieff) clarified perfectly the nature of overproduction crises, and the 30s when the Keynesian school explained it and gave solutions, as today the ’3rd age of scientific economics’, systems sciences that describe the eco(nomic)system and forecasted this crisis and its solutions long ago, is totally ignored.
Instead economists multiply their ‘thin air speeches’, damned lies and statistics hiding the true causes of the crisis of unemployment (blue collar robots and white collar pcs) and the existential crisis this process will bring to mankind.
A fundamental theme of this blog (left column) will be the study of those cycles, its overproduction crises, and the causal comparison of its main nodes, as we have done in the milieu of systems sciences, forecasting the present crisis of overproduction of chips, 20 years in advance3 with an accuracy and detail still unknown to my knowledge in books written today that go no further than the anecdote of the mortgage crisis. Forecasting is indeed the key element of a scientific true model, as all sciences predict the future observing the patterns of past cycles.
So the solution to the crisis is obvious but IT MUST COME from a cultural UNDERSTANDING of what is best for man – to overproduce life goods and control the evolution of metal-goods
Since, the process though is not EASY TO REFORM, because machines, which are just organic systems of metal, which we humans evolve imitating our equivalent organs, do have also as all living organisms two species, one peaceful and other top predator species, called a weapon, which is the most efficient, and whose purpose is to kill human beings.
So while ‘democracies’ pretend to be ‘smooth’ and ‘nice’ as long as people are perfectly manufactured in their brains to feel entitled, if and when they try to change the system and establish a REAL democracy, the ‘wolf’ takes out its sheep skin.
And as this happens every end of the cycle of massive theft and appropriation of money, capitalist democracies have embedded within its structure a brutal age of global war in which the wolf is out killing the r=evolutionary humans that want a better world.
Newspeaks of caring…are of course useless… We go into… demonstrations that merely ‘dissipate energy into heat’ and get nowhere (don’t confuse action with motion said Hemingway), infotainment and fiction and a systemic degradation of the human social mind and maintenance of the collective subconscious in an infantile age and marketing of technology and companies and degradation of politicians and governments as inefficient, that make us ultimately want to build the world we are building for machines not for humans.
So that straightjacket of political correctness that includes the prohibition of criticism to tribal religions, to our idologists of capitalism, which are all experts, to our antidemocratic systems, which just give placebo rights to people, and to the 24/7 religion of the machine ensure always that the ‘background bottom line’ of the ‘METAL-EARTH’ -the construction of a world made to the image and likeness of machines, ruled by company-mothers, where humans and life are ‘expendable’, advances unchallenged.
OH, YES, I forgot (: ‘you’ wanted to know the short cycles, let us then return to the whole American market phases, and analyze the short ‘baguas of 9 years’, backwards from the future 2018 crash of the bitcoin miraculous birth as the future currency of the robot radiation that will do us all, carpe diem live the day, mine your bit… coin your death.
Here we are again. So to make it easy on you, let us trace back from the bitcoin birth and crash of the market, changing to an splendid little war, of 2018. NOW THE MARKET has a human component which is dual: the generational life-death cycles which I like to illustrate it instead of using medical science, with the taoist bagua, which understood them 3000 years ago, and the 8 year cycle of American GOP – war party, lobbying for splendid little wars for profits and Democrats, for splendid consumption that atrophies the huminds of our children. So to give it a bit of mystical poetry to the brutality of it all:
9 Years cycles: Youth-Reproductive age-Old Age and death: war age.
So, all this said, now we can fast-track backwards to the ideal crashes of the bagua market: 2018 crash of birth of the bitcoin and terminator walls (Korea, Israel, Mexico: GOP candidate trumpuppet)
2009 (a bit advanced to 2008), crash of birth of e-money derivatives (chip overproduction of money).
2000 (crash of birth of internet mobile systems of sales – amazon; war cycle, Desert storm II, Bush Jr.).
1991 (crash of birth of chip/war industries – electronic war @ desert storm: GOP candidate Bush Sr. fall of the wall crash of human r=evolution).
83 (Falkland wars: last splendid little war of the British nostalgia empire; crash of birth of e-money speculation).
1973 (Yon-kippur war: last of the wars of the engine, plane/tank era; birth of the chip; final cycle of Tv-speculation: eye of machines)…
1965 (crash of consumption of home appliances, Tvs and electric machines; splendid little war: Vietnam war).
1954 (crash of end of Korean splendid little War.
1946 (crash of end of II world war).
1937: crash of real state market in New York, which drove the world to the II world war solution.
1928 crash of electric ticker, radio and cars… started in The city, next year moved to Wall Street.
1919-21; first car crash… crash of end of profitable I world war, massive engine of profits for the iron and electrochemical industries consuming to the tune of sarin and gun machines millions of human beings; and so here we stop backtracking the ‘slightly adjusted’ to some human affairs and war decisions… wonderful ENGINE OF DEMOCRATIC CAPITALISM – WAR! PROFITS, consumption of human lives and billions for the o.o2% of stock-rats… Mr. Veblen, leisure class for which we all toil to the tune of bipartisan democracies.
Creditation of money”, thus fully controls through the cycle of greed our societies; and all other cycles of modern history fine-tune to it. In the graph, the previous cycle, briefly outlined on top of chemical machines, from dynamite, through engines, cars and bombers in II world war.
In the graph, we show the 72 ‘human, generational’ cycles of the nations that invented the I, II and III Industrial R=evolutions, its fundamental energies and machines that dominated the world during those 3 cycles, the Age of England, the Age of Germany and the Age of America:
The I industrial R=evolution of Metal is dominated by Steam Engines that move the first huge bodies of machines, trains and steamers that require simple, big energies.
But the arrival of a more subtle, quantized form of energy, electricity, which can create broken bits of in-form-ation, allows the discovery of the ‘metal-heads’ of the II Industrial Evolution. The steam leaves way to a combined form of chemical and electrical energy (oil inflamed by sparks in gas engines, electrical light bulbs, etc.); while engineers develop the 1st mental machines (phones, radios). It is the Electro-chemical Cycle of machines.
Then, the vacuum tube and the chip—a diminutive brain of metal—start the III Evolution of Energy, the electronic age, which dominates the end of the XX century.
Finally, the XXI C. will be the IV Age of Solar Energy that will give autonomy to organic machines, robots and smart weapons that complete the Industrial R=evolution. Classic economics calls those 3+1 cycles of the Industrial Evolution caused by the invention, reproduction and evolution of new energies and machines that act as the economic engine of modern history, the Kondratieff cycles of economical activity; each one of 72 years.
Yet another biological division is needed to understand how those cycles of economics affect so deeply in a biological manner the cycles of history and the life of human beings—the distinction between ‘peaceful machines’ that human consume and ‘predator machines’ – weapons that consume men.
The 36 years peace/war cycle.
Let us consider the consequences of those cycles in history:
— Countries that discover and evolve each of those energies become the top predator nations of the world during each Kondratieff cycle: Britain mastered steam energy and dominated the Steam Age. Germany mastered electro-chemical energy and dominated the II Kondratieff cycle. America mastered electronics and dominated the age of mental machines (chips & TVs). Finally, the Robotic age that now starts will be dominated by Asian nations, till the arrival of The singularity.
— Since machines dominate culture in the industrial age, societies go through 3 parallel cultural ages that mimic the dominant machine of each cycle:
— An age of infantile enthusiasm, when the new machine/energy is discovered.
— A mature age of global power, based on the development and massive reproduction of a peaceful transport machine.
— And a cultural baroque, when lobbyism and political corruption accepts the ‘needed consumption’ of weapons in wars to foster profits, with all kind of ‘cultural excuses’:
It is the British & French, colonial age of steamers that ‘civilized’ Africa & Asia in the I cycle. It is the Nazi age, dominated by tanks that ‘cleansed’ Europe of ‘inferior races’.
And it is the Age of Bush, with his war against Iraq, which substituted the legitimate fight against Al-Qaeda into a war for profits that is used to develop robotic weapons.
Indeed, if we consider America at the head of the electronic cycle, it has passed through an infantile age of enthusiasm for its electronic machines, during the first days of television, into a mature age of world-wide re=production of TVs and portable PCs, which expanded American culture worldwide, to the present age of smart weapons, TV violence, global Big Brother surveillance and lobbyist politicians, indifferent to human lives, who spread global war in search of ever higher corporation profits.
Yet at the same time the electronic cycle ends, we can observe again an infantile, techno-utopia enthusiasm for the Robotic R=evolution that will bring mankind into obsolescence and a messianic zeal among physicists that are building the Final Weapon—a Cosmic Bomb that will bring the frontier of energies to its absolute zenith; that of black holes and ‘strong quarks’, responsible for the explosion of planets and stars all over the Cosmos.
It is the Energetic, Bomb age of the IV Cycle, the first factory of dark matter on planet Earth.
§ Robotists call the first machine with Artificial Intelligence the singularity. While the Final Weapon is a self sustained ‘mass-bomb’, able to burn the entire mass of this planet, converting the Earth into a pulsar or black hole, also called a Singularity. Thus, the name seems appropriate to define the IV cycle of evolution of machines, as it applies to both limits of human survival: a super-energetic machine able to destroy the Earth and a super-informative machine (an intelligent robot) that will make human workers obsolete. It is the cycle that completes the Industrial Revolution and can extinguish history, unless a radical change in the management of the Economic Ecosystem takes place.
§ The Kondratieff cycle is therefore the fundamental cycle of economics and the main cause of the peace and war ages that alternate in modern history. And its periodicity coincides with the generational cycle of 72 years of human life and national power, given the fact that those machines are discovered, evolved and used by human beings, organized in nations. Its key dates are:
I STEAM CYCLE: British Age:
1784…..Steam Peace…1857 Crash…Steam Wars…
II CHEMICAL CYCLE: German age:
1860s…..Chemical Peace…..1929 Crash…Oil Wars…
III ELECTRONIC CYCLE: USA Age:
1940s….Electronic Peace…2001 Crash…Robot Wars…
IV SINGULARITY CYCLE: Chinese Age:
2010s: Singularity=Extinction? Vs Human R=evolution?
The key date of each cycle is the moment in which the overproduction of peaceful machines provokes a global economical crisis and a stock-market crash. Then the same companies that made peaceful machines switch to the production of weapons. Every 72 years that mutation happened after one of the 3 biggest stock market crashes of history, the railroad crash of 1857, the 1929 crash of radios and car industries and the 2001 NASDAQ crash of the computer industry.
After each of those crashes the Industrial World began to re=produce those machines as military weapons that, instead of being consumed by human beings, consumed us in wars. Today the electronic gadget mutates into a smart weapon, as the first Terminator Robots, self mannered tanks and plane drones, are mass produced for the American army. It is the age of Smart Weapons.
Unfortunately in those war ages industrial information, carried by ‘metal-heads’, stresses the human causes of those war cycles, convincing people that wars are not made for industrial profits. So European empires didn’t go to war to get raw materials and sell weapons but made war for altruistic causes—‘to civilize primitive cultures’. Germans didn’t go to war and made weapons to get out of the 29 crisis but to obtain a much needed ‘vital, historic space’, unjustly stolen by surrounding nations.
Today the world is at war in Iraq to ‘bring Democracy’ in what seems a repetition of our colonial profiteering and despise for ‘primitive cultures’.
This hypocritical reasoning is needed, given the fact that we live in Democracies and people are ethic and need good reasons to kill the poor people of the planet, instead of raising them from their misery with money for peaceful education and trade. This solution however cannot be implemented, since stock-markets deviate constantly most investments to the technological companies of each cycle, provoking a chronic scarcity of human goods that prevents the evolution of those cultures, without credit to come out of their cycles of poverty, violence and terrorism. As ‘Business this week’ put it bluntly: ‘who needs Mexican bonds if we have Sun Microsystems’.
Let us resume 2 of those 4 generational cycles, the British and American cycles, from texts taken from the scholar book that explains in detail the model:
The Steam, British age
The 72 years steam cycle. I Age: Discovery.
…And so Great Britain wins the Napoleonic wars, invigorated by a new generation of ‘Am Segullah’, Financial speculators (Rothschild being his most visible head) and Scottish engineers, which use the capital accumulated with black slave trade to create a white slave industry of miners, steel and mill factories:
I Kondratieff Cycle: Steam: World Power: Great Britain.
Founding Generation, reproductive age, Imperialism and decay
1783 1814 1853 1914
Watt, Pitt, Nelson, Stephenson, Owen, Victoria, Maxim, Edwards
In the previous scheme, each generation of the steam cycle is represented by the key economical and historic dates and its main characters:
In 1783 Watt invents the steam engine. In politics Pitt directs the nation. In war Nelson commands the Navy . . .
In 1814 Stephenson invents the train and the reproductive, mobile age of steam machines starts in earnest. We highlight the figure of Owen, the humanist entrepreneur, who tries to share wealth with his workers, as he affirms: ’what improvement in the life of people could we achieve; if industrialists took care of their workers with the same zeal they protect their inanimate machines’. But an economical crisis of overproduction brings war profits in 1853 and workers are taken care in a very different way. It is the Crimean war, the most absurd of all carnages till I W.W. Maxim invents the gun machine and Nobel invents the Dynamite, becoming the great entrepreneurs of the military age of colonial empires.
Queen Victoria is the decadent ruler of this generation, who will deny the Irish famine, as ‘Pope’s propaganda’… Disraeli is his favorite Ministry, a Jewish financier, who wrote in his youth a book, ‘Coningsby’, boasting how the money of his people controls ‘behind the scenes’ the future of kingdoms and nations. When he reaches power, he applies those millenary skills to the control of the ‘Free World’. The world is in the middle of the I Kondratieff crash, caused by the excesses of railroad investors, who keep printing ‘for free’ shares of companies, even if all the profitable lines have been built; while agriculture, life-enhancing human goods and the common people have no credit whatsoever. Yet Free Trade ideologist Malthus blames the poverty of the people, not on those reproductive excesses of machines but on sex (human reproduction). Irish don’t die of hunger because Irish money goes to subvention imperial war and feed the pockets of absentee English renters, instead of being reinvested in the land, but because those Catholic heretics make love too much, work too little.
II Reproductive, Age: railroads expand.
Thus, we consider the Founders of Industrial Britain the generation that took power after the American Independence War, when England suffers a deep change in his hierarchies of industrial power. Since the American market for slave and cargo trade is gone, now ship-owners and City financiers reinvest their capital in the new industries, powered by steam engines and managed by Scottish engineers. That capital sprouts mills and smelting furnaces in Scotland and the axis Liverpool-Manchester, where the Industrial R=evolution of Metal begins in earnest. It is a hardy generation that develops steam industries with ‘white slaves’ treated worse than the black slaves of their former plantations.
In 1804 Fulton uses a steam machine to move a wheeled boat and the Mississippi basin acquires the topic image of its river steamers. In 1825 the age of steam transportation begins in earnest with the opening of the railroad Stockton-Darlington and the invention of the ‘Locomotion’ by Stephenson that reaches the astonishing speed of 15 Km/h.
It is the Re=productive Generation of steam engineers, who expands the English Empire, its trains and customs, globally. In 1851, in the Universal Exhibition dedicated to new machines, Great Britain astonishes a world ready to accept the awesome new ‘Age of Energy’. It is a peaceful age of economic expansion, where good causes carry the day. For once, Britain can feel proud of its empathy to the human species, abolishing slavery, no longer its main business. Though at the same time it will promote opium trade—the only goods Taoist Chinese want from the West. The first social movements appear among workers. Trade Unions start their activities.
Besides ‘white slaves’ and children working ‘ad metalla’ in mines, another kind of casualties appear. Before the train, horses were the main energy carriers. Now trains made them obsolete: within a decade, 90% of them are sacrificed to the machine.
Within 40 years after the steam engine was invented, Scottish engineers and financiers from the City have constructed an Empire of railroad networks to satisfy travellers and invent stock money in the market. Thousands of miles are laid, while people die of hunger, without resources to pay their food and improve agriculture. It doesn’t matter. As an industrialist put it to Engels, when the social thinker complained on the conditions of life among textile workers—‘Certainly, Mr. Engels, but we both are making so much money, peculiar, isn’t.’
Trains expand now globally as new nations imitate the British industrial system. 3 new countries construct railway networks in their Empires: France, Germany and the United States. In the North-east, the railroad New York-Chicago signals the American industrial take-off. In the 1850s, railroads provoke a craze in the stock-market that reproduces money faster than ever before to build those lines.
The power reached by the great captains of the new industries of Iron and Railroads is difficult to assess properly, because money is invisible and bribes are hidden by political rhetoric. But we can see their influence analysing how lobbyist politicians adapt their speeches to the new technologies. Now concepts such as ‘progress’, the ‘future’ and ‘technology’, substitute old nationalistic and ‘greed’ speeches in the arsenal of political corruption. Global, financial resources are drawn with a single aim: capitalize railroad companies. In 1840 in England the train is already the engine of the economy, absorbing more than half of the capital of the nation. Then in 1847, in England and France, stocks collapse in a first warning against overproduction. Immediately workers are fired, poverty spreads among ‘white slave’ workers and in 1848 social revolution explodes, but it is defeated all over Europe.
III Age: The Great crash, the train Wars.
Railroad companies, once the inner revolution is controlled, expand further their lines in Europe, while in America a splendid little war with Mexico conquers Texas and California, ensuring decades of transcontinental railroad expansion. Soon the gold rush supplies the financial markets with fresh money to construct them and the crisis recedes.
But in Europe, without Californian gold, the crisis lasts longer. And in 1851 the mood of the industry changes. The railroad, iron and steel industry decide to sell weapons, since there are no more profitable lines to build. They force a change on Free Trade policies and Great Britain advocates for protectionism within its Empire, to keep 1/4th of the Earth as an exclusive market. So Britain changes once more its discourse, from Freedom against slavery to the colonization of Africa, from Peace to War. The Crimean war explodes in 1853. Now England defends the brutal rule of the Ottoman Empire over Slavic Christians, against Russia that tries to free them. The cynicism of that war, with hundreds of thousands of dead, reflects the decadent, 3rd generation of a declining British Empire, which will sacrifice all ethic considerations, to profit. Now their military use steel in armoured railroads, steamers and guns.
The cruelty of British Imperial soldiers provokes rebellions elsewhere. The mercenary Sepoy, till now loyal soldiers to the Empire, rises in India due to the indifference of British officers towards their religious customs. They are forced to bite cartridges greased with cheaper cow and pork fat that Hindi and Muslim religions forbid. Once defeated, the Indian Company, proprietor of the entire subcontinent, which doesn’t want to pay the military expenses anymore, is ‘subvention’ by British tax-payers and the country is turned into an Empire. Those wars show the solution out of the crisis: to make railroads in the 3rd World. So British and French colonize Africa with trains and steamers.
At home, after the 1848 socialist r=evolution, the labour movement is repressed. Now the bourgeoisie accepts his supreme role as civiliser of the world by the force of cannons and lives decade after decade of apparent happiness, while the Empire builds its railroads and spends its iron overproduction, ‘civilizing’ natives.
It is the beginning of an era that articulates empires around armoured railroads and steamer routes, the new imperialistic weapon that substitutes the gunboat, allowing the inner penetration of Africa through Jungle Rivers and steamers and the conquest of the American west. Still Europe is saturated of railroad lines and so, once the extraordinary expenditures of iron in the Crimean and Mexican war end, overproduction surfaces again. In 1857 Markets sink in the biggest global crash till date. The previous two mini-crisis have taught industrialists the proper solution: if a small crisis was solved with small war (Mexico, Crimea), why not a big war for a big crisis?
In America an obscure lawyer and lobbyist for the Illinois Railroad company, infamous for the way he has convinced peasants to give for free their land to the Railroad for the ‘sake of national progress’, Mr. Lincoln, is chosen president. He presides over a cabinet of engineers and railroad moguls that want to build lines South to North to haul cotton to New England Mills. He faces the rebellion of Southern Planters that prefer to sell cotton more expensive in Europe, transported by gunboats. The issue ‘steams’ in the parliament, as the North wants to impose a tax on imports/exports that will make southern cotton too expensive for Europeans. Soon war breaks to ‘unify’ America. The idealistic excuse is the freedom of the ‘negro’. In Europe a similar process takes Moltke—the railroad master of the German army— to war, also to ‘unify’ all German-speaking nations. The role of armoured railroads in the victories of Grant and Moltke is undeniable. In Italy, the industrialized North, Savoy, centre of the railroad industry, leads also the Unification wars. So, throughout the 1860s, idealistic excuses hide the expansive militarization of railroad industries and the greed for new profits and land of those countries that produce them.
The imperial age of the railroad is called descriptively in America the age of Robber Barons. People like Staunton, war minister, who masterminded the killing of Lincoln, when the president showed democratic weaknesses for the black’s. The likes of Stanford, who builds the transcontinental, become the new owners of America, designing the West around train routes. To that aim the same Lincoln had passed the Railroad Act, giving 1 and ½ Californias of free land, both sides of the railway, to the companies that built the transcontinental, plus hundreds of dollars in subvention for every mile they build.
New weapons (breech-loader rifles and revolvers, the famed Winchester and Colt) fire so fast and are so entertaining that railroads distribute them among passengers to exterminate bisons on their way. The hidden agenda was already established by Jefferson: ‘if we destroy the food supply of the Indians, they will disappear, as they are not fit to survive in our complex world’. Gunboat companies had distributed blankets, infected with smallpox.
Without those transport weapons, Africa would have been left unconquered. Now idealistic explorers map the route, then steamboats penetrate the rivers, establishing factories. They trade with weapons, exchanged for silver and gold. Then colonization begins and the continent becomes a colony, in which trains are built along routes that take Europeans to zones rich in metal wealth (Katanga, Pretoria, etc.). Even Russia, after its defeat in the Crimean war, learns the power of steam and starts laying radial networks departing from Moscow, ending with the building of the Trans-Siberian. Canada and Australia also create, with an ever growing speculative capital, subscribed by corrupted governments, 2 transcontinental lines, traversing thousand of miles of desert land, despite being already connected by traditional boats.
As always, during the III Kondratieff cycles, the choice between spending money in life-enhancing goods, in a Demand Economy for the people and useless machines for companies and their small elite of ‘stockrats’, is rigged by the ‘dictatorship’ of money and corrupted politicians, in favour of the machine. In those uncharted lands the native tribes of Siberia, Australia and Canada also learn the consequences of ‘Progress’ under the tutelage of the ‘iron horse’.
Meanwhile Germany, with less territories to build and without an empire to conquer, exhausts sooner its railroad cycle and their industrialists research alternative machines and new forms of energy, establishing the foundations for the next Cycle of Chemical Energy and its machines of peace and death – the German Age.
The last railroad wars are fought at the turn of the century to distribute the final pieces of the colonial pie: steamers obtain trade concessions on Chinese rivers and South African railroads move North, towards the Transvaal and Rhodesian mining zones. Great Britain again wins the biggest pieces, after the Boer war in South Africa and the Boxer war in China, both in 1900. Newly industrialized countries will enter the XX century fighting for those final territories. The Russians will divert their resources to the Trans-Siberian, confronting the expanding Japanese empire. Manchuria is the battlefield of Chinese, Russians, Koreans and Japanese, who win them all and build railroad lines across ‘their territory’. Meanwhile thousands of workers die of malaria and tropical fevers in the Panama Channel, finished in 1914, where boats are hauled by railroads. It will be the last act that closes the century of big energy machines. Now the oil cycle is mature enough to take over, as diesel engines are mounted in locomotives.
By the turn of the century the English are technologically behind Germany that has developed first the chemical and electric industry. The English won’t ever rule the world alone, but arrogant Animetalcultures never acknowledge defeat, as all of them believe to have a unique ‘destiny’, ‘Chosen by go(l)d’. So, as it happened with baroque Spain and Rococo Holland, the British culture enters a long age of spiritual decay that extends till I World war, as it clings to power, using its war machine, now against the defenceless people of its colonial empire; while Germany heads the new Industrial Revolution.
The American, electr(on)ic Cycle.
Youth as energy—Mobile machines—Third Age as a Weapon
A- Bomb—Household appliances—Pc, video camera—Smart weapons.
1944— 1971—Crash. 2001—2008—20??
The III Cycle of electronic machines is ruled by America, from its beginnings during World War II when the 1st computer, ENIAC, was used to make A- bombs, to the present age of chips, whose massive reproduction has caused the crash cycle of e-money and the creation of robots and smart weapons – the 3rd age of electronic Machines.
The electronic cycle. Information machines.
During the age of chemical weapons, electricity was discovered and used in energetic systems, engines, bulbs and ignition systems for cars, but its informative development was restricted to wireless communication, without intelligence. Then, during the War, mathematics, the language of metal, showed itself fit, especially for electric systems. So electronic machines were born. Machines acquired intelligence and paradoxically men diminished it, precisely because machines substituted and atrophied their brains. It is the Neo-Palaeolithic age of man, the age of America, when words become fiction, audiovisual media regress humanity back to his emotional age and we assist to the birth of intelligent machines. We talk again of 3±1 ages for all those information machines:
-1: Birth as a weapon: In 1937 Germans create the first accelerator to research fission. Today, they will make black holes with one billion times more powerful…
ENIAC, the 1st computer, is used to calculate the 1st atomic bomb, the purest form of electronic energy, latter evolved for consumption into peaceful Nuclear, Electric plants. While in 1940, TV screens are used in radars to trace submarines.
1945-1971: The young, energetic age of visual televisions (metal-eyes). After the war, a boom on electronic consumption and household-electric appliances begins. In-form-ation machines acquire a new dimension of form, becoming visual with the TV-set. In 1936 BBC begins its first emission of black and white Television. After the war, electronics are applied to fixed, big household appliances. Machines are still huge, mainframes, fixed studio cameras. TVs replace the electric radio in the altar that controls our collective mind, as radio replaced the printed ‘Book of God’, the Bible that had replaced the verbal priest. It is not the message, its truth and positive meaning for mankind, what determines the success of a certain ideology, but the capacity of the mechanical medium, which carries it, to reach millions of simultaneous ‘human cells’. So, paradoxically, while the machine evolves faster, its human values, the message, keeps degrading. TV-programmers in fact call the ‘message’ filling and the ‘advertising’, content. Because the meaning of TVs, its content, is to make every human being a consumer of machines.
1971-1992: Maturity. Age of Computers (metal-brains).
The first computers will be used to create bombs (13% of American electricity goes into manufacturing nuclear bombs) and monetary information (IBM develops computers for the accountancy departments of big corporations). As electronics evolve, they become smaller gadgets and with the arrival of chips (1971), mobile machines become all the craze. Everybody now has a mobile, wireless phone (a metal-ear), a mobile PC (a metal-brain) and a mobile video-camera (a metal-eye).
1992-2008: 3rd Age & social evolution. Internet: Social networks
As Pcs multiply, their messages increase its simultaneity, arriving to a growing number of humans. They also increase its informative complexity, till merging in Internet all the world’s visual, printed and verbal forms of information. A fact that, paradoxically, degrades the quality of the message and the mind of a growing number of ‘humans’ that are no longer emitters but only passive ‘receptors’ of information, becoming ‘virtual personalities’, as they start to believe more the manufactured virtual world of mental machines than the real world they perceive with their own senses . . .
Fixed Robots: Brains+eyes+hands.
Meanwhile, the IV cycle of robots enters its ‘discovery age’: Computer brains, Metal-eyes (cameras) and Body platforms (mainly arms), come together in the first robotic workers that provoke a massive loss of blue jobs in the car Industry. The 3 elements that converted man into the top predator of the Earth (3 dimensional eye vision, brain power and hands) are now put together in those machines, foreseeing the XXI century robotic r=evolution.
This 3rd age of electronic machines also witnesses the change of its use, from consumption to war. In 1991, a small crash of overproduction is solved with Desert Storm. Then, after the 2nd mini-crash cycle of NASDAQ, in 2000, Iraq II evolves further smart weapons. It is the present age. If the cycle continues as usual, it will last 36 years and create the 1st Terminators – robotic weapons that might extinguish mankind, as the baroque prophets of Hollywood envisioned . . .
Thus, in the 3±1 ages of the electronic cycle, or age of ‘informative machines’, the dominant machines of each age, are: television in its young age of discovery; computer chips during the mature age of peaceful consumption; and robotic weapons in the 3rd age of war. Finally, social networks of computers evolve machines into a global organism, completing the 3 ±1 arrows of time of the new species. Yet humans, paradoxically, suffer an increasing simplification of their minds, regressing from the verbal age, back into a visual, dramatic age, the Neo-Palaeolithic age of Death of the human mind. The Neo-Palaeolithic happens first in America, where humans are more exposed to the new mental machines that substitute and atrophy theirs. Then, to the rest of mankind that had scorned the American psyche as infantile, selfish and dramatic, without realizing America is just a tapestry of all human races, devolved into a future made to the image and likeness of machines that sooner than latter will also devolve the minds of the Old World, as we copy their inventions . . .
The 3 generations of American power.
American films show the 3±1 ages of its audiovisual culture in art: an energetic, young age of Westerns and romantic epics; a mature age of sensory pleasures, after II WW. and a baroque angst showed in science-fiction prophecies of human extinction by machines.
From the human perspective the electronic age is the age of America, since the US won II World War, ‘importing’ the Jewish and Nazi pioneers who had mastered the new energies.
In the financial economy of monetary metal-information that American age started 2 decades earlier, since information always precedes energy, as your thoughts anticipate your body movements:
After I W.W. the dollar became, hand in hand with the Mark and the Pound, the new International top predator currency. But a market with 3 global currencies is unstable. So finally, the country with the bigger GNP becomes the new top predator International currency. In this case it was America, whose weapons had won I World War, financed with dollars loaned to Europe. So, as the world asks for more dollars to pay those loans and imports American industrial products, the dollar becomes the international currency, substituting the Mark (1922, crash of the mark) and the Pound (1928, crash of the pound). Today we are in a parallel situation, with 2 old currencies, the dollar that plays the role of the Mark, the Euro that plays the role of the Pound and the newcomer, the Yuan that will become the top predator currency, with unlimited rights to deficits, when it is made convertible . . .
After that crisis the US became the World top financial power and biggest GNP nation, starting a new cycle with 3 cultural and industrial generations:
— The tough founder generation of Rockefellers and Roosevelts, who conquered the world in II W.W. We respect those Americans, because that Generation of Founding Fathers was ethical people who twice saved Europe of its German death. In art it is the age of epic, simple, dramatic films (Westerns).
— The reproductive generation of the post-war age, who expanded peaceful consumption of electronic gadgets. It lasted till 1971-73, when the chip and a new type of money (electronic money) appeared. It is the classic, sensory age of America that gives birth to a pleasure seeking revolution during the 60s and more humane attitudes towards the rest of the world. Americans were then imitated by the entire planet as their culture reproduced worldwide.
— The decadent generation: Once the American classic age and the 60s revolution ends, the massive reproduction of electronic money by Wall street, of smart weapons by the Pentagon and violent movies by Hollywood, brings about the spiritual decay of the Americans: they become violent, simplistic, cynical or return with ‘angst’ to the past, in a recurrent religious process, observed in previous industrial cycles, called ‘Revivalism’ that brings back Biblical, Protestant and Jewish fundamentalism. In politics, after Reagan, an actor, opened the way to war propaganda with his TV speeches on the eviL empire (Communism), a dynasty of weapon’s lobbyists, Bush Sr. and Jr., ‘manufacture’ 2 ‘splendid, little’ electronic wars (Dessert Storm I, II). While Electronic art, (FX films, TV programs, video-games) simplifies ethic and aesthetic values, ushering mankind fully into a neo-Palaeolithic age of violence and gore. We enter fully the human ‘Baroque’, a period in which the values of money (greed, consumption of machines) and weapons (death, revenge), become the correct behavior of all film heroes.
That extinctive generation of war-loving, lazy, ignorant, TV minded Americans, imposes his monetary and military power worldwide. Neofascism and the militarization of the economy announce the end of American freedoms, in alliance with fundamentalist Judaism (Sharon), which made of a small conflict that could be solved by diplomatic means (the Jewish/Palestinian wars) a World war, hand in hand with fundamentalist Islamic groups. Because the 3rd age of any species is similar to its beginning, mankind enters into the neo-age of Semite wars that confront the 2 oldest specialized ‘tribes of animetals’, Jewish go(l)d believers and Arab warriors, who re-enact the ‘Bronze Cycle’ in which Jerusalem and Assur (a city close to the birth play of Saddam) are again enemies. It is the beginning of the robotic wars that transform peaceful electronic gadgets into smart weapons and robots. Soon Israel displays the first terminator soldiers, called Guardium, who watch out the electronic fence that separates the righteous from their ‘not-Chosen’, poor, Semite brothers. It is also the age of violent, extinctive art, of Terminator movies that foresee a future, no longer of technological symbiosis between men and machines, but of life extinction by smart weapons. Now Americans are despised and feared, as their indifference to human life inside and outside America becomes notorious: death penalties, Iraq massacres, the New Orleans disaster and finally the global scam of e-money, shows the decadence of the 3rd present war generation of the American age:
Founders, reproductive Maturity, Imperialism and decay.
1914; 1945 1961- 1971 —2000-2008
Each Kondratieff Cycle of Energy & Machine Evolution, with its Ages of discovery, consumption and military use, takes to Global power the nation that discovered the new energy, in 3 generations of hardcore discoverers, pleasant reproducers and corrupted politicians, who use the machine in war, completing the cycle of national power. In the graph, Einstein, discoverer of electronic energy (photoelectric effect) and promoter of the Atomic Bomb; Bill Gates, reproducer of electronic programs, the richest man of America and the Bush family, lobbyists of smart weapons, complete the 3 generations of the electronic cycle of American power.
The key figures of the III Cycle of electronics are evident: Einstein, who discovered the photoelectric effect, founding electronics and found the transformation of energy into matter that gave birth to the atomic bomb; Bill Gates, the king of electronic information in the pc age, the richest man of America, as Ford and Rockefeller were in the oil age or Stanford, king of the railroad, was in the Steam Age, or Washington, king of the plantation economy, was in the colonial age. And finally, the Bush dynasty of war presidents with interests in the weapons and oil industries.
Corruption and hypocritical double talk now becomes absolute, as the financial and military leadership runs the US as a private company. The present privatization of war completes a full cycle, started by the first gunboat companies, owners of America, now ends at CERN, with its Final Weapon – the quark cannon that will produce cosmic weapons, no longer under the scrutiny of the Military. Yet Mass-media censorship and indoctrination is today so profound that the ‘bewildered mass’ ignores those threats. Instead it lives in permanent fear of ‘aliens’ and ‘viruses’, obeying his ‘Commander in chief’, Bush Jr., who spends billions of $ in weapons of mass destruction to fight a terrorist that moves in a mule. While his father wins millions, as a weapon Lobbyist for the Carlyle Group, in which the Bin Laden family has also interests—a company listed in The City, where the Blairs, his main allies in these wars, worked. Bush, instead of capturing the real authors of the WTC massacre, evacuates the Bin Ladens from the States, takes a month to start the search for Osama in Afghanistan and declares war to Iraq, in a distracting second front that reinforces terrorism… and military budgets.
If Hitler used the communist movement and the burning of the Reichstag as the perfect excuse to build up German arsenals and the unjust treatment of Europe towards Germany in I W.W., to convince Germans that they had to gain back their historic territories to the East, now Bush in America uses terrorism to renew the American war machine; while Holocaust ‘angst’ convinces the Jewish people of the unjust treatment of mankind against them and the need to gain back their historic territories to the East. Bush and Sharon are compared to Hitler by ‘left wing radicals’. Indeed, they play Hitler’s role in the present cycle of World Wars. If the Nazis came out of the crisis building tanks, Israel starts the production of Terminators and Bush announces billions of dollars in investments to make robotic soldiers that should replace American soldiers after 2013. Military rhetoric calls the program ‘Future Combat Systems’. Since the ‘future’ has been established long ago by technological rhetoric, not as the place where we will all die, but the place where we will find paradise . . . You might think Mr. Obama would reverse that trend, but he has not… In his first year in power the war budget of America has reached an all time record for any military spendig in the histor of mankind, to fight with drones the ‘just war’ of Afghanistan.
The non-future of life in a free economic ecosystem, according to the laws of evolution: the singularity age.
This law which we anticipated in the science of complexity, 2 decades ago, so far has only been recognized in the realm of economics by Kurtzweil, albeit completely misinterepreted in terms of humanism. Since the arrival of the singularity age is NOT a techno-utopian moment, but a moment of extinction of the previous obselete, less complex human species.
Nor it is unavoidable, since all systems can be controlled by regulating the amount of information and energy they receive.
The biological, human organism does die, in his 3rd informative age because we CANNOT engineer it, after 3 billion years of evolution. But there are animals who do become immortal by merely repressing and erasing the ‘informative warps’ of the organism.
This means that mankind could stop the process of extinction of life and make Gaia immortal, repressing the lethal goods of the tree of science that are extinguishing us. And yet the opposite happens, Company-mothers of machines that produce and evolve, weapons and robots, the lethal goods that will extinguish us, are accelerating the process and repressing humanist information, humanist theories of economics and non-technological, life-enhancing cultures, they are not giving credit to the welfare state, they are not giving credit to companies that produce human goods. So indeed, history as today is becoming extinguished, but because that choice has been taken by our dominant institutions, due to their complete misunderstanding of the meaning of economics, machines, and the laws that regulate life and organic systems.
The censorship of a biological, eusocial science of economics and history by ideologies of power.
It has to be noticed that in each cycle the evolution of machines increases its speed; since in complexity a fundamental law is the differential law of evolution between energetic systems that evolve geometrically (in machines cars) and informative systems that evolve geometrically (in machines today’s computers). Because the information of those system increases in an accelerated pattern, the age which now starts, the age of the singularity will see the arrival of Artificial Intelligence and self-replicant nano-bacteria able to reproduce their information till converting the Earth potentially into a greey-goo. And that is why history is accelerating its rhythm of creation of information and the wave of past history is longer than the wave of present economics, and now in the ‘last decades’ of this process of accelerating information machines evolve faster.
But of course, the capitalist ‘belief’ in the God–like nature of money and ‘progress’ achieved with technology censors any doubts about such scary future.
It is interesting in that sense to notice that Mr. Kurzweil, a ‘religious techno-utopian’ from our dominant animetal culture, who works for the extinction of mankind, is widely popular, but our 20 year old models of biological economics or any humanist analysis of the destruction of gaia and its life-cultures is censored and buried, since the times of the pioneers of humanist schools of economics, Butler, Sombart and Marx til today…
Of course, censorship of humanism and the defense of life by capitalism and the animetal cultures that are extinguishing us will NOT change the facts of history – reason why the model of bio-economics and bio-history is the only one that has predicted this crisis 20 years in advance, as Marx was the only economist that predicted the 1st crisis of 1860, decades in advance and Keynes was the only economist that predicted the II Kondratieff crash decades in advance in his book on consumption. So you have a triad of serious scientific models, closely related; each one censored by capitalism and its infantile myths and cultures that have understood scientifically the future of mankind.
Unfortunately power ignored them till the cycle and the wars they predicted happened. And even after those tragedies have completely misused their work for selfish agendas. Indeed, Russian Stalinism had nothing to do with the work of Marx; the post-war Keynesian politicians, who invited Milton to Breton Woods completely denied Mr. Keynes fundamental advice – the creation of a worldwide currency with deficit rights so sorely needed in this crisis. Now our scholars are proposing all the same brutal, capitalist measures that Coolidge introduced in the 20s and will destroy gaia.
Of course the GNP of companies will grow. But it is increasingly a GNP consumed by machines. Even basic food price is rising as fields are used to cultivate staples that can be converted in fuel for cars. 1 billion humans are now undernourished. 2 billion have now TB. Incresing numbers of Humans are becoming obsolete. We are becoming a surplus not needed by the economic ecosystem. Robots will consume machines, tv-eyes, chip-brains and further extinguish the need for human consumers. But economists will say this is ‘GNP’; will say we are getting richer. So we are living the beginning of a decoupling between mankind, increasingly poor and companies increasingly rich, shown in the difference between the GNP of nations and the capacity of consumption of humans. Thus, if in the I Industrial Revolution, machine-bodies decoupled the human economy from life-beings; in the III industrial R=evolution robots and chips are making humans obsolete. And yet economists will sing the increase of GNP and productivity that reduces human labor as a ‘success’.
Imagine the final result of this way of measuring the economy as the singularity age advances: a world full of ‘economical wealth’, measured by the number of robots, machines and computers and weapons reproduced by the economy; with a massive underclass of human beings, working in mcdonalds, UPS, cleaning homes of the wealthy or living in Ghettos, connected to 3-Dimensional TVs, with free, cheap taxed dope and garbage food. And our economists at Davos greeting each other for the success of coming out of the Singularity crisis. This is the future of the world ruled by our present economical ideology. And we are seeing the beginning of this end, explained 20 years ago in our pioneer books on biological economics.
Son indeed, History is once more rhyming and our ‘experts’ in damned lies and statistics are self-repeating the errors of the 1860s and 1930s.
Plainly speaking the world is in the hands of a group of people, financial economists, who in the XXI century are applying dogmas and ideologies of power, born in the XVIII century, out of the hat of a fellow, Mr. Adam Smith, pious calvinist who thought that money was the ‘hand of God’. How do you expect to survive with that type of science. The degree of complexity of the mathematical and computer models of modern economists dont hide the fact that this fellow and his correligionaries have never properly studied and defined in scientific terms the meaning of machines, money, economic evolution, economic ecoystems, and all the other parameters of macro-economics. So economics is still an ideology whose myths, created to maintain the power of the financial elite that controls the world with the language of money, pass as scientific laws, because now they are written with complex mathematical models that ‘look’ very serious.
In epistemology a science is defined by its predictable power. Thus a model which cannot predict the future is not a science. Astronomy was born when we predicted the sun’s position, after Kepler’s cyclical laws. Before it was called astrology. Macro-Economics is NOT a predictable science. So it must be considered an ideology of power. Micro-economics is a science, because its models of production do work. There are several sub-disciplines of economics which are scientific, but the most important of them all, the one dealt with in this web and attached book, ‘economic history’ or macro-economics, which tries to understand the long term, global scale, consequences of the Industrial R=evolution has never gone beyond the recollection of facts (first stage of evolution of a science) or what is worse, the use of money and machines to impose power.
For all those reasons, when you apply the true cyclical laws of economics the predictability of the future is clear: they will commit the same errors they committed in the 1860s and 1930s.
This explains why 3 years into the crisis, the only model that goes beyond the anecdote of the mortgage meltdown is widely ignored and probably it will be so, as humans keep their deja vu pattern of errors, in the present 2010s=30s decade. The astounding parallelism of those crisis explained in this web and with far more rigor in the book recently published in english is conclusive. And yet to explain mankind that we are in a Great Depression is Taboo, because neither economists making fortunes speculating in the financial market, not politicians that live the day and must sell happiness can explain it.
Billions of $ are being wasted, millions of people are without jobs, new, overpowerful machines that could extinguish mankind (CERN’s black hole factory, self-reproductive nano-robots) are being researched – in other words an inferno is being built instead of a paradise, precisely because the dogmas of capitalism and mechanism, the alliance of economists that create money and physicists that create weapons and machines and have made a religion of it, cannot be argued. How much more beautiful the world would be if humans were rational and eusocial as Nature is; and economics and history would be cherished disciplines, studied in depth and evolved as humanist sciences, able to create a human paradise, not a world for machines in which man is the new ‘inferior species’?