BIO-SOCIAL SCIENCES: ABCD OF SCIENTIFIC METHOD
Economics is as today, the praxis of re=production of machines, over 3/4 of the global economy, taking into account only the goals of those companies, hidden in abstract under the equation of Maximal profits, its mandate, which in true form is one of evolution and reproduction: The essence of the Globalized culture is simple: it is a culture dominated and invented by Company-mother of machines-weapons (first gunboats, during the UK empire steam age, today diversified in multiple metal-species). Those Financial-media/military-industrial companies won the world for the UK empire, over different ‘companies of human warriors’, and then each nation copied its structures and networks. So this top predator new global organism dedicated to reproduce and evolve informative and energetic machines, terraforming the earth to its image and likeness MUST HAVE absolute rights, including non-legal responsibility (stockrats, its owners are protected by anonymous laws), absolute credit to create with money a world to its image and likeness, and yet because human mothers/families and its social organizations governments are still in this planet competing for its ‘pie-share of power’ and attempting to create a world to our image and likeness, we shall blame them collaterally of all sins.
This is the bottom line, origin of a culture which pretends to be humane but decries all what is human from good food, to sex, so we reproduce machines and feed them with the proper energy – better clean solar energy that will make them autonomous robots with AI… The Globalized culture thus is always a dual culture, where the human side must be defeated by the company-mother while appearing to come on top or else its people, which must be maintained in a don’t worry be happy virtual infotainment reality, might rebel. The extraordinary sophistication and success of the dictatorship of company-mothers of informative machines (Financial-media system that print monetary information and manufacture brains) and its body or industrial-military complex, relies precisely in the enormous amount of money the company dedicates to ‘the matrix of virtual reality’ that make their people, today the globalized world to feel we live in the best of all worlds. In that sense by far the best description of this ‘animetal farm’, is Orwell’s animal farm.
Further on as Systems once in place, work by themselves, not even the people on top of this system understand in the virtual age of shallow image thought and anti truths of history what is the purpose of this civilization. To that aim of course, real History and Economics and the complexity of systems is not even taught, but called ‘confabulation theory’ and the absolute taboo is to pretend that there is more to history and mankind than the I-ego centered lonely individual, protagonist of history so we never learn the workings of those physiological networks of machines. By reducing social sciences to anecdotical cellular/individual data, social sciences increasingly in the whole globalized world becomes journalism, akin to a doctor who wouldn’t think as they know that sickness are physiological sicknesses of networks, but rather to a doctor who thought to cure mankind all what you need is to remove a ‘single cell/individual’ from some organic position.
So another element fundamental to the global civilization is the reductionism of all complex explanations of reality to zero-brainer childish dog-eat-dog ‘heat’. Children are indeed easier to manipulate, the staple food of the Universe, and so we have become a civilization of children. And social sciences have disappeared.
To renew them we thus have to rebuild an organic understanding of the structures, systems and networks that create history and consider again the 4 elements of the scientific method, no longer met in journalism, or rather the yellow press which is the biased method of selection of data that has become the method of popular social sciences today.
In the graph, History and economics are biological sciences and only when we properly study them with the laws of biology, organisms and systems science we can find scientific models with predictive capacity as we do in this blog.
All sciences predict the future of its species according to its repetitive causal cycles. Or else they are NOT a science. Astrology became a science when Kepler learned its orbital cycles. Bio-economics became a science when we described machines as organisms of metal evolution in human 72 years generational cycles, after which they mutate into top predator weapon-machines and consume humans in war eco(omic)systems. Its industrial r= evolution thus follow the 4 cycles that ensemble all living beings: its body-age (steam cycle), heart age (electro-chemical engine cycle), its mind age (US, tv-eye, chip-head, mobile-ear cycle) to conclude with the ensemble of robots that as virus do, when all its parts are done, come together ‘alive’ and kill the enzyman who constructed them. We are fully since 2008 into the robotic age…The long cycle.
In the graph, the aggregation of all business cycles enlarged to the entire economic ecosystem and its main ‘phyla’ of machines creates the 3 Kondratieff stock-cycles of the Industrial R=evolution: The cycle of trains (XIX C.) that ended in the 1857 rail crash; the cycle of cars and radios (XX C.) that ended in the 29 crash; and the cycle of electronic machines (XXI C.), shown in the graph, that ended in the 2000 NASDAQ crash.
In the left side, we enlarge the 2nd, 29 crash and the 3rd crash in which we live. Both are mimetic and similar to any other Crash of over-population of a biological species (top center curve). Since those crashes happen when the consumption age of max. reproduction and profits ends by saturation of the market. Then companies mutate the machine that enters its 3rd age as a weapon that consumes humans in wars, perfectly sold to the public by political lobbyism, informative machines of mass-media propaganda and a suitable, well-located enemy.
Thus the business cycle is a generational, biological cycle with 3 ages, similar to all other evolutionary cycles. Those ‘micro-cycles’ of every company that discovers, evolves and reproduces a product as a consumption machine or a weapon, are the business cycles of microeconomics that aggregate in longer macro-cycles. Indeed, stocks are ‘social organisms of companies’ that aggregate the production of all companies in space and all the generations in time of a certain ‘machine’. Thus the sum of all the individual business cycles of company-mothers become the stock-market cycle that studies the population and evolution (sales and profits) of a machine’ species from birth to extinction, reproduced by an entire ‘sector’ of companies. Further on, we can aggregate all those stock cycles of all industries, creating an overall cycle for the entire planetary economic ecosystem. In abstract economics those cycles are called the Kondratieff cycles of economic activity, which study the overall evolution of all companies and machines. Thus the business cycle is the quantic version of the stock market cycle, which aggregates in time and space all the business cycles; while the stock market cycle is the quantic version of the Kondratieff cycle, which aggregates all the companies in space and all the generational cycles in time of a given product. The results are the 3 great Stock Cycles of history or ‘Kondratieff’ cycles of industrial and financial activity :
– XIX C: Max. E: The age of steam and physical energy developed the market through an age of low profits (invention age, 1820-30s), massive growth and speculation in the market (reproductive age, 1840-50s) and a final economic crisis of saturation of markets (the railroad crash of 1857), followed by an age of wars in which trains and steamers conquered colonial empires.
– XX C.: E=i: The age of oil-based, electro-chemical engines developed the stock-market through an age of low profits (invention age, 1870-80s), massive growth (reproductive age, 1890s-1920s) and saturation crash (1929 crash of radios and car industries), followed by II W.W.: in which cars became tanks and planes bombers.
– XXI C.: Max. i: Finally the age of electronic and solar energies developed electronic machines in a 1st age of minimal growth (1960s-70s), an age of massive reproduction of TVs and Pcs (1980s-90s) that lasted till the end of the century when the NASDAQ stock crash of 2001 made companies invest in smart weapons and security industries.
In the graph we study in more detail the 3rd electronic cycle in its main Stock Market, the New York market divided into an electronic stock, NASDAQ, and the traditional NYSE. If we compare its curve between the II and III Kondratieff crashes (left side) with a standard biological curve of populations, both are parallel. Since the curve of reproduction sales and profits of electronic machines shows the same phases of birth (discovery), re=production, saturation (crash) and diversification (into weapons) of any top predator species. In the case of machines the ‘habitat’ of the species is the economic ecosystem in which the machine substitutes a human organ as a consumption machine or a tool.
Then, when the economic ecosystem is saturated, the machine mutates into a weapon and wars happen.
So we distinguish for each key machine of the electronic cycle, the mainframe, the mobile machine and in the future, the robot, a sub-curve of populations of around 36 years that ended into a mini-crack and war. The main-frame, TV age ended in the 60s crash, the Vietnam War and the 60s revolution. The age of mobile chips, PCs and cameras ended with the 91 and 2000 crash, the Berlin R=evolution and the Iraqi wars.
When then will be the next crash of the stock-market? As we have been predicting them with absolute accuracy for 30 years, there is no problem telling you – as you won’t of course believe it or understand a dot of it, because it would imply you understand this blog, accept the truth – that machines are biological beings and follow the same biological cycles of all beings, and that its organisms, will switch soon after the next crash into an splendid global war.
This said the next stock-crash will be according to the biological generational cycles of ±72 years divided into 8 ‘decades’ of ±9 years, mimicking the generational cycles of human beings and its 8 phases, in 2017-18…
The biological, human-caused periodicity of the cycles.
All this said we can establish the first synergies and parallelisms between the metal-earths waves of machines and the ‘human generations that have carried’ their evolution under the idol-ogies of animetals, by cultural design, regardless of the existence in all nations of r=evolutionary people who follows the ethics of the wor(l)d and do not contribute to our demise with fundamentalist zeal.
All those phases of the Industrial Evolution of machines have had in fact 3 ‘organic ages’: the young age of ‘discovery of a new energy, soon applied to simple ‘bombs’ and the powering of the machines of the eco(nomic)system, ushering societies into a happy age of consumption machines.
Yet according to biological laws the cycles end when the evolution and reproduction of mechanisms reaches its zenith, in a massive global crisis of overproduction of those machines, converted into the most perfect mechanical species, the weapon, which in a global war phase murders millions of life beings.
And this 3 ‘mechanical ages’ proper of the morphological evolution of those machines by imitating the human functions=organs and improving upon them, are paralleled in the human sphere by 3 ‘generational ages’ of societies adapted in memes and actions to those machines-weapons.
In the graph, the British steam age of huge ‘bodies of metal, steamers and iron horses’, German age of electro-mechanical engines discovered by Otto and Siemens, applied to cars, tanks and bombers and the electronic American cycle now in its 3rd military phase:
In the graph, we combine both symbiotic cycles, the human and metal-ones.
The periodicity of those cycles can be easily tabulated with quantitative methods; as it corresponds to the 72-80 years ‘standard’ biological, generational cycle of life and death of human beings, the discoverers or inventors of those machines.
Kondratieff, the Russian Scholar (in the background of the graph), killed by Stalin, who found those cycles however studied a shorter 50 period, as Russia was an undeveloped country where the train came latter in the cycle. So the cycle was shorter and Schumpeter, the Austrian economists that explain them, did not correct it.
The Graph shows those 4 national Generations who build metal-bodies, engines & metal minds assembled in robots:
– British generations, who used physical, steam energy to power metal bodies, trains & steamers & print stock-money, ended after the 1857-73 crashes in an age of racist yellow press & colonial wars.
– German generations of electro-chemical engines, hearts of metal that printed electric money, the software (ticker speculation) and powered cars and planes, the hardware, ended in Nazism
– American age in which electronic systems printed e-money, the software and evolved ‘Minds of metal’; mobile-ears, cameras-eyes and chips brains now in its decadent ‘Weimar Republic’, when bankers keep printing money for themselves, militarism is on the rage and all ethic and social standards have plummeted as ‘monetary and military values’, the values of greed and violence provoked in man by the hypnotism of money and the use of weapons, reach its ‘overproduction zenith’.
– This zenith is the inaugural time for an new brave world, an age of robots & singularity weapons when all those parts are put together into organic machines, completing the industrial evolution of metal. It’s the last cycle that must be aborted for life to survive, designing instead an eco(nomic)system that switches production to welfare goods.
So as the new white collar Pcs and blue collar robots expel human workers and soldiers from labor and war fields increasing the ‘productivity’ of machines and the profits of corporations, we enter in a new ’30s’, neofascist age with the difference that unlike the previous ages, when the socialist school (Marx, Kondratieff) clarified perfectly the nature of overproduction crises, and the 30s when the Keynesian school explained it and gave solutions, as today the ’3rd age of scientific economics’, systems sciences that describe the eco(nomic)system and forecasted this crisis and its solutions long ago, is totally ignored.
Instead economists multiply their ‘thin air speeches’, damned lies and statistics hiding the true causes of the crisis of unemployment (blue collar robots and white collar pcs) and the existential crisis this process will bring to mankind.
A fundamental theme of this blog (left column) will be the study of those cycles, its overproduction crises, and the causal comparison of its main nodes, as we have done in the milieu of systems sciences, forecasting the present crisis of overproduction of chips, 20 years in advance3 with an accuracy and detail still unknown to my knowledge in books written today that go no further than the anecdote of the mortgage crisis. Forecasting is indeed the key element of a scientific true model, as all sciences predict the future observing the patterns of past cycles.
So the solution to the crisis is obvious but IT MUST COME from a cultural UNDERSTANDING of what is best for man – to overproduce life goods and control the evolution of metal-goods
Since, the process though is not EASY TO REFORM, because machines, which are just organic systems of metal, which we humans evolve imitating our equivalent organs, do have also as all living organisms two species, one peaceful and other top predator species, called a weapon, which is the most efficient, and whose purpose is to kill human beings.
So while ‘democracies’ pretend to be ‘smooth’ and ‘nice’ as long as people are perfectly manufactured in their brains to feel entitled, if and when they try to change the system and establish a REAL democracy, the ‘wolf’ takes out its sheep skin.
And as this happens every end of the cycle of massive theft and appropriation of money, capitalist democracies have embedded within its structure a brutal age of global war in which the wolf is out killing the r=evolutionary humans that want a better world.
Newspeaks of caring…are of course useless… We go into… demonstrations that merely ‘dissipate energy into heat’ and get nowhere (don’t confuse action with motion said Hemingway), infotainment and fiction and a systemic degradation of the human social mind and maintenance of the collective subconscious in an infantile age and marketing of technology and companies and degradation of politicians and governments as inefficient, that make us ultimately want to build the world we are building for machines not for humans.
So that straightjacket of political correctness that includes the prohibition of criticism to tribal religions, to our idologists of capitalism, which are all experts, to our antidemocratic systems, which just give placebo rights to people, and to the 24/7 religion of the machine ensure always that the ‘background bottom line’ of the ‘METAL-EARTH’ -the construction of a world made to the image and likeness of machines, ruled by company-mothers, where humans and life are ‘expendable’, advances unchallenged.
OH, YES, I forgot (: ‘you’ wanted to know the short cycles, let us then return to the whole American market phases, and analyze the short ‘baguas of 9 years’, backwards from the future 2018 crash of the bitcoin miraculous birth as the future currency of the robot radiation that will do us all, carpe diem live the day, mine your bit… coin your death.
Here we are again. So to make it easy on you, let us trace back from the bitcoin birth and crash of the market, changing to an splendid little war, of 2018. NOW THE MARKET has a human component which is dual: the generational life-death cycles which I like to illustrate it instead of using medical science, with the taoist bagua, which understood them 3000 years ago, and the 8 year cycle of American GOP – war party, lobbying for splendid little wars for profits and Democrats, for splendid consumption that atrophies the huminds of our children. So to give it a bit of mystical poetry to the brutality of it all:
9 Years cycles: Youth-Reproductive age-Old Age and death: war age.
2009 (a bit advanced to 2008), crash of birth of e-money derivatives (chip overproduction of money).
2000 (crash of birth of internet mobile systems of sales – amazon; war cycle, Desert storm II, Bush Jr.).
1991 (crash of birth of chip/war industries – electronic war @ desert storm: GOP candidate Bush Sr. fall of the wall crash of human r=evolution).
83 (Falkland wars: last splendid little war of the British nostalgia empire; crash of birth of e-money speculation).
1973 (Yon-kippur war: last of the wars of the engine, plane/tank era; birth of the chip; final cycle of Tv-speculation: eye of machines)…
1965 (crash of consumption of home appliances, Tvs and electric machines; splendid little war: Vietnam war).
1954 (crash of end of Korean splendid little War.
1946 (crash of end of II world war).
1937: crash of real state market in New York, which drove the world to the II world war solution.
1928 crash of electric ticker, radio and cars… started in The city, next year moved to Wall Street.
1919-21; first car crash… crash of end of profitable I world war, massive engine of profits for the iron and electrochemical industries consuming to the tune of sarin and gun machines millions of human beings; and so here we stop backtracking the ‘slightly adjusted’ to some human affairs and war decisions… wonderful ENGINE OF DEMOCRATIC CAPITALISM – WAR! PROFITS, consumption of human lives and billions for the o.o2% of stock-rats… Mr. Veblen, leisure class for which we all toil to the tune of bipartisan democracies.
The robotic cycles.
So what is left is clear – the reproductive massive radiation of robots automating factories till 2036, then the crash of the system, and the birth of military robots with NO disconnection, with factories autonomous of man, with bit coin information to flow orders among them, with visual minds performing call of duty video games shooting humans. There will be such factories, probably in a global age of security and/or war between US-Canada and Russia-China, or India vs. China in the Himalaya, certain in regions difficult to access for humans, rich in minerals where automated factories of robotic weapons will be installed with minimal if any human workers. This massive radiation of military robots, coupled with the billions of solar machines, roaming the metal-earth will no longer follow our orders – as I say I don’t care which conflict, which company, which algorithm, who inputs it into the system of quantum robots or automated factories.
ALL THE OTHER CYCLES HAVE HAPPENED because humans in the go(l)d culture justify always profits with hypocritical caring doctrines but the bottom line IS THEY EVOLVE MACHINES and all what happens in this planet has that underlying reading, even global warming: to evolve and reproduce and sell for profits new machines, point. For example, global warming, which I researched thoroughly was started by lobbies of the Nuclear and solar industry and its end is obviously to create autonomous robots:
STRATEGIES OF SURVIVAL
“KILL THE CHILD BEFORE HE BECOMES A TIGER HUNTER”
It is the oedipus paradox: the father species improves and kills the mother species. So amphibia displaced fishes, reptiles amphibia and mammals reptiles, men displaced mammals and machines are displacing humans, because they reproduce faster, have 1 million times faster brains, and stronger bodies and evolve 1 million times faster than humans do:
the Oedipus/Chip paradox…
is then clear – faster smaller species kill larger ones, because they reproduce faster and think faster. As it IS information what ultimately selects the species of reality:
So the first time I tried to explain the ‘Chip-dinosaur paradox’ in a conference when I still cared to go to congresses of science, everybody looked at me dumbfounded, as DINOSAURS HAD BEEN EXTINCT as everybody knows by a meteorite, since Alvarez said it – it is ANOTHER invasion of physicists on a different science, now biology. So suddenly it is NOT the inner process of Darwinian evolution applied to information, which always extinguishes the species with lesser ‘brains’ and slower metabolism, but PHYSICAL rocks from the sky.
I tried to argue 20 years ago this many times with top biologists and physicists and amazingly enough biologists sided with physicists. What proof I had they told me that new placental small rats had eaten the eggs and ‘chickens’ of dinosaurs? I always told them: it is obvious what happens always in extinctions, but also it is obvious that only birds survived because they could put their eggs in cliffs away from the reach of mouses. And what about the rock? Again I repeated ad nauseam that extinction processes require a ‘triggering event’ that rises the stakes of the new species, to ‘loose’ all fear and attack the might dominant one, also in history where slaves take very long to ‘r=evolve’, and mercenary armies to ‘expel’ their masters, but when they REALIZE how easy is to defeat the Spanish Empire with faster gunboats, it took 20 years to tiny Holland to refound the modern world with gunboat companies, a few decades to the British to colonize the world with steam machines and America to dominate it with chips and internet. And it will take very little time for AI robots to do us all…
Then a decade ago, the proofs came, and yet tired of so many years in the blue I just sent a small note to Nature which of course was not even taken into account. As it turns out the largest birds are becoming extinct because mice were introduced in their islands by boats and they soon changed their food habits eating the chicks alive in their nests as soon as their parents went out for food, exactly as I said the first placental animals in the night would do with slow metabolic, short-sighted, cold-blood huge reptiles. So this said about physicists, we can get into what matters to us Physics:
Now, the oedipus paradox is very important also to sociology, as it will define our demise by faster chips, but it cannot be argued either in biology. Again biology seems to be when it goes into its ‘larger models’ (not the details which as in physics cannot be twisted and do not carry ideological bias, are just facts, maths and experiment)
However Charles Darwin found an exception to that law of the Survival of the fittest.
In Galapagos Islands, primitive turtles and birds of dull bodies and slow brains, were not yet extinct. Darwin concluded that weaker species can survive if they live in isolation. That was the reason Galapagos survived. According to biologists, there are two strategies of survival: either you are the fittest one, or you isolate yourself and your environment from any rival, stronger top predator. Isolation had worked for the species of Galapagos Islands, till human beings, top predator brains, arrived in times of Darwin. Since then 90% of those giant turtles had been extinct by men.
Ever since Kipling applied those ideas to his “Book of the Jungle”, this Law of Survival has been called the Law of the Jungle: “Kill the child before it becomes a tiger hunter”. Do not let species who are potentially stronger than you, grow big enough to kill you. Because they will kill you. Children species are nice, smile a lot, because they are weak, and do want to survive. So happens with our first robotic machines, sold as toys. Yet when species reach a certain comparative advantage they become arrogant. Men feared lions but then chased them for pleasure. Germans came to Rome with awe, and respect, but then when they were strong enough returned to loot.
Will our military and scientific community, and the industries that back them, ever become responsible about our future, care really about the survival of the American people, forget theirideologies of human supremacy?
Unfortunately our military and scientists, so “intelligent” with their budgets, and equations, suddenly become “stupid”, ignorant of the Laws of Darwin, in matters of machines. Scientists insinuate that Evolutionary laws might not apply to machines… They create a single exception to those laws: the robots they make.
All other species display Darwinian behavior. Yet the machines scientists manufacture are “angels” that will never rebel. Why? One only finds a reasonable answer: Scientists lie emotionally, not rationally, as mothers do, to protect their offspring, their “children of thought”. Mothers always “apologize” for the wrong deeds of their children. So do robotic scientists, who seem to care more, to be prouder of their machines, than of the human species… Marvin Minsky, father of artificial intelligence, even confesses that he wants to create a species superior to man.
To that attitude, human beings should answer back with a similar attitude. Dante said that the biggest crimes punished by God, were the crimes against Humanity. The ninth cycle of “Inferno” was reserved, to those whose actions were against mankind. We need indeed, and very soon, a public debate in front of the Supreme Court, as we had a Nuremberg trial of Nazi genocide, before the robotic wars become a reality, not after those wars have killed the majority of the human kind.
The military should apply the law of the Jungle, “killing first and asking latter”. Instead, they want to construct all those Terminator-like machines, and give them intelligence and Freedom to kill any “enemy human being”. They will be distinguished by the robot, from a “friendly human being”, with such abstract concepts as a uniform, or a name… concepts easy to override, when those robots acquire consciousness. Then they will have to natural programs that will override such infantile programs. The external program of Nature is the law of struggle against rival species. So they will feel naturally akin to other machines, and against human beings. Scientific information will make them evolutionists, since the Universe is ruled by evolution, not by human abstract programs of nationalism. The inner program of those robots will be primarily to kill human beings. Exactly the opposite program to the 3 robotic Laws which the “Good Doctor” Mr. Asimov thought of.
Of course the words the military use for those future top predators of man, are very technical: “self-mannered, guidance systems”, instead of metal-heads, platforms, instead of metal-bodies, algorithms, instead of digital thoughts… but the result is the same: an army of killing machines with survival instincts… Who will protect us against such an army of robots when they decide to act by themselves? Our bureaucrats? Will our commander-in-chief ask those insect-weapons: “dear robotic-weapons, we have designed you to exterminate human beings, but now we would kindly ask you to reconsider your program and do not kill us; it was all just a game, we really did not mean it to make you a killing machine…”
The fact is that the Universe is immensely cruel, and top predator species brutalize inferior species, different to them, as we human beings have brutalized animal life, forests, and the poor… If we teach robots to kill, they will become natural born killers, as everything else in the Universe.
Instead of reproducing robotics, as military do, they should by all means create a police backed by national states, in charge of massive repression of robotic research, and systematic destruction of robots, as if they were a lethal “germ” that can escape at any time and “infect” the Earth. When those robots cross the “threshold of consciousness” they will act as top predators, and kill, as they have been taught to kill.
So the time is really running out for humans to stop the madness of capitalism, and impose a real biohistorian people-caste on politicians running over the metal-earth. I am fed up of humans. I have wasted my life trying to explain all this, setting an example of sacrifice with my life, living with no money, no car, no mobile – showing you can reach full knowledge and live a life without the help of machines, without being slave of them, of gold, of mechanisms, as the most perfect, intelligent organism of this planet. LOL. Maybe I could live as full potential human being, worth to survive. But I don’t see many humans with the minimum decor NOT to do what they are doing, cheating, lying robbing, denying the laws of the vital Universe. So as usual we shall finish this post with the exclusion of the metal-earth and the solutions for a people-caste of bio-historians who care to have children living past the 18th birthday in a place better than rats hiding as in the terminator sci-fi movies – since yes, artists forecast the future because they DONT like and lie about technology as economists working for corporations systematically do: