The Industrial R=evolution of machines follows an ±72 years cycle of evolution and reproduction of money, machines & weapons, caused by the evolution of new energies that define modern history and its ages, since in each age a top predator nation, which discovers the new system of energy, will develop itsmachines, money and weapons and rule the world with them:
From 1780s to 1857 we lived the age of steam, dominated by the British empire that found that energy, applied to transport machines – steamers and trains, and in its military version (as all machines have a dual, weapon system), conquered the world. And they reproduced huge quantities of paper-money in pounds and train stocks, which Britain used to buy the world for free. Since in each of those cycles the top predator nation has the dominant world money which everybody accepts.
From 1857 to 1929, the world was dominated by electro-chemical energies, developed by Germany, which invented the electric engine (siemens), the oil engine (Diesel) and the electro-chemical engine (gasoline engine, Otto). And the world was dominated by German Industries, even though Britain managed to control most of the world as the Germans made brutish Imperial errors, failing to unify the German/Austrian Empire and to seize Africa (idealism of Mr. Bismark). Otherwise by the 1860s a unified German-Austro-hungarian empire after the defeat of Sadowa, would have ‘liberated’ the Balkans from the Turks, conquered Constantinopoli and created a 150 million invencible Germanic world. Still the evolution of machines (chemicals, electric and oil engines) and the top corporations of the age were German and the German culture was admired all over the world. It was also the age of tickers, electric machines that speculated and multiplied the money of the economy in stocks.
From 1929 to 2001 the world was dominated by electronic systems that were invented in America (first digital computer), and so we lived in the age of the American empire, which now comes to an end. In this age electronic money was also invented and the americans bought the world with it.
Since we are now entering the robotic age of organic machines and solar energy, with maximal evolution in Asia (Korea, Japan, soon China). Yet this age is a different age because it completes the evolution of machines into organic systems that fusion the ‘bodies’ of the I Industrial Revolution, the ‘engines’/hearts of the II German revolution, the ‘electronic heads’ of the III Industrial revolution, into autonomous machines independent of men, with solar free energy, which will be pegged to its external skin, autonomous thought embedded in software programs and self-propelling bodies.
And since in each age of the Industrial R=evolution all machines have its top predator, most advanced forms as weapons, this is also the age of robotic wars, predators an terminators on the making.
Yet all those cycles are broken by crisis eras, between them, which are signaled by a 72-medium-7 short- ‘earthquakes’, massive crashes of the economy, due to the overproduction and increasing obsolescence of old machines and old forms of money. So we had the 1857 crash of train stocks and 72+8 years latter the 1929-37 crash of cars/electric radios and 72 years latter the 2001-08 crashes of e-money and the electronic economy.
Thus, those ages are separated by crises eras as the present one, which connects them also to the political and war cycle. Since company-mothersswitch from re=producing the good=peaceful consumption, transport machines of each cycle to make weapons, the bad=military fruits of the tree of metal. So after 1857 armored trains and Disraeli wih vaporettes started the military age of colonialism and after the 1929 Germans made tanks and tried to create the empire mr. Bismark didn’t. And after 2001, the Bush dynasty created the military age of America, reproducing a big brother system of electronic surveillance and evolving the first robotic weapons that will dominate the world till the ‘great ecological reversal’ , the 7th age of biological extinction of all forms of life on Earth, the singularity age, when metalife, organic robots substitute carbonlife on the face of planet Earth…
Indeed, machines become reproduced in waves of increasing numbers that affect the world of History, as they adapt the human world to its image and likeness. Finally the ‘wave’ of re=produced machines and money becomes overwhelming, and humanity=History suffers its consequences, as machines compete with labor, and money, the language of information of the economy, becomes hyper-abundant and looses value.The result of those overproduction cycles of machines is a massive social crisis that often degenerates in war. Since to keep profits going, companies sell weapons to governments and back war-monger politicians, to provoke wars and justify sales.
The wave of evolution of machines and weapons is a repetitive cycle that goes each 72±8 years from an age of wander and discovery of new machines and energies, to an age of happy consumption – the 1850s, the 1920s and the 1990s – when machines are mainly peaceful transport machines and consumption gadgets that we enjoy. Yet at the end of the wave, it becomes ‘a tsunami’. The ‘wealth’ of nations, made of machines and money overwhelms the human ecosystem and we enter an age of crisis; of machine’s overproduction and stock-market crashes (1857-1865, 1929-1937, 2001-2009) that brings an age of poverty, war and fascism: the 1860s; W.W.II and W.W. III.
The 2001-2008 crisis is parallel to the 1857 and 1929 crises of the global economy
What are the underlying reasons of the present economical crisis, beyond the details of the mortgage crash? We can compare this crisis with a similar transformation that happened in history about 70 years ago. The happy 90s looked like the happy 20s. But suddenly the World changed into the warring 2000s, as the 20s changed into the ominous 30s. In both ages a tremendous crash on global stock-markets, due to the overproduction of machines (radios and cars in 1929 and 1937, electronic goods in 2001 and 2008), sunk the economy, increasing unemployment and social inequality.
That historical similarity is not trivial. It is a cyclical change that modern history experiences every ±72 years, a period that historians call the Generational, Human Cycle1, since it is the mean biological cycle of 3 human generations – grand-father, father and son. Indeed, if we go 72 years backwards in time, we see a similar crisis happening globally after a period of industrial growth guided by the steam engine, which lasted through the happy 1850s, marked by the railroad craze . . .
Then in 1857 the overproduction of railroads crashed the industry worldwide and history turned upside down. In the middle of that crisis, the ominous 1860s brought wars fought with armored trains and steamers in America (Civil War), Europe (the Italian & German Unification wars) and Asia (Sepoy Revolt in India, II Opium Wars). So during the Industrial Revolution, every ±72 years the world changes, after a big economic crisis, from a happy time to an age of war and destruction, from an age of machines to an age of weapons, the age that now begins worldwide. And it all starts in the financial economy; because the reproduction of money reaches a peak at the same time the reproduction of machines saturates the market and becomes reconverted into weapons.
The causes of that exact 72±8 year cycle of global stock-crashes are simple. The Industrial Revolution is in fact the Evolution of Machines and Money, energetic and informative systems, traditionally made of metal, which can be studied with the laws of morphology and evolution. Machines and money evolve according to the energy and information, they use to become re=produced.
Humans evolve a new type of energy and information, derived from that energy, which renews all the machines and financial instruments of the economy every human generation of 72 years, in which a nation of ‘founding fathers’, captains of industries, their sons and grand-sons, reproduce and evolve a new energy, machine and form of money to its perfection. Yet at the end of the cycle, the machine and money becomes over-reproduced, saturating the market and provoking, due to a crisis of growth, a global economical crash.
Those generations also bring the nation that discovered the new energy to the top predator status of history. Because energy is also the substance of which weapons are made.
—Thus, we had an age of steam machines, the age of England, between 1780s and 1857, followed by a crisis of overproduction of steam machines and stock-money that brought the 1857±7 years crashes of the train-based economy.
—From 1857 to 1929, we lived in the age of electro-chemical energies, machines and chemical explosives, dominated by Germany, followed by a crisis of overproduction of cars and radios, which caused the 1929 crash, 72 years after the train crash.
—It came then the III cycle of electronic machines, electronic money and Nuclear Bombs that took place from 1929-2001, the age of America; which again ended in the dotcom and mortgage crashes, 72+7 years after 1929.
- Followed by the Age of the Singularity, the IV Cycle of Evolution of machines, dominated by robots, solar Industries, Quark Bombs and China. Because scientists call a black hole, the type of quark ‘bombs’ now researched at CERN a Singularity; and they also call the arrival of Artificial Intelligence, the Singularity moment, we have called this 4th age of the Industrial Revolution, the age of the Singularity.
Thus, a biological analysis of Free Markets shows the need to regulate the evolution of technology, pruning the bad fruits of the tree of science, weapons, robots and polluting industries, as we do with lethal organisms (virus, predators) to limit their competence with mankind, while fostering biological, human goods needed for our survival (agriculture, education, housing, verbal ethics, health, environment),which also provide more labor, as they are reproduced or created by human beings, if we want to make the world safer and sustainable for life . . .
The previous cycles, called the Kondratieff cycles of the economy, are known to economists, but their use is reduced to charting profits in the stock-market and other financial aspects of the economy, despite their huge social and historic implications. Unfortunately, guided by profits, Economics pretends to be a ‘mathematical’ science, independent of History, uninterested in the collateral effects of the production of machines, money and weapons might cause to mankind.
For that reason, it is imperative to understand technology in biological terms, abandoning the mathematical, abstract approach of classic economics, which cannot understand those cycles of evolution, neither studies the ‘real’ competence and collateral effects some lethal machines are having on mankind – from global warming, produced by the ‘detritus of those machines’, to the massive wave of unemployment that robotics is causing, to the risks poised by the evolution of Nuclear Weapons, into the threshold of ‘planetary bombs’ – quark bombs and black holes that can potentially destroy the planet. In that regard, a Free Market is an ‘Economic ecosystem’, regulated by a language of information called money and ruled by company-mothers, whose aim is to re=produce and evolve machines, simple organisms of metal that imitate the functions of energy and information of the human being. As a result the Earth becomes terraformed, from a carbon-life ecosystem (Gaia), ruled by human organizations (Governments) and human languages (verbal laws) into an economic ecosystem (Free Market), dominated by company-mothers, money and machines, which enhance our energy and information but also compete and substitute man in war and labor fields . . .
A detailed analysis of the cycle of 72 years of evolution of energies and machines explains what all the models of classic economics have failed to understand: money also follows a cycle ofevolution and reproduction, related to the machines used to ‘invent’ it, today electronic machines, which have not only saturated the world with hardware but also with e-money software, till money lost value. Because money is reproduced also with machines, its cycle is parallel to the cycle of machines of the economy. Thus, we predicted3, parallel to the crisis of overproduction of computers, also a financial crisis of e-money, made with PCs, similar to the 29 crash of the ‘ticker money’ economy, which jacked up prices of stock with electric machines into surreal levels. Indeed, there is every 72 years a huge crash in the stock-market with 2 short ±8 years ripples, due to an over-production of money and machines, which plunges the world into a global depression, till the new cycle of energies and new machines takes off, creating new industries and jobs that replace those of the previous cycle.
The boom and bust cycle of the global economy is both, a cycle of reproduction of energy, weapons, machines and economical information, money, as all of them are related. 3 negative effects are paramount:
- Machines throw people out of work.
- Weapons kill them in wars.
- And too much money causes inflation, absorbs savings and when the bubble of false value explodes, it ruins the economy of the Middle class.
Those effects are studied in more detail in the featured articles dedicated to ‘economics’ you will find scrolling down this web.
Money is a language/software of information, whose ‘hardware’ evolves in each cycle.
All this said, it should be obvious that the present crisis is the result of the exhaustion of the longest cycle of Economical activity, called the Kondratieff cycle, which defines the evolution of energy and the machines and money manufactured with it, the 2 main non-human elements of the economy.
The exhaustion of the 2 previous Kondratieff cycles of steam and chemical energies were responsible for 2 other huge crashes of the Economy of the Industrial R=evolution, the crash of the train, in 1857 and the crash of the car & radio stocks of 1929. Now we live the crash of the electronic-economy based in e-money and computers.
The regularity and phases of those crashes which i anticipated 20 years ago in my thesis at Columbia University are shown in the previous graph.
Those ‘structural crashes’ are caused by a change in the energy we use and hence a change in the evolution of machines that use such energy and also in the money of the economy created with new mechanical systems:
- In 1857 the world lived the crash of paper-stocks parallel to the exhaustion of the train age.
- 72 years latter it lived the crash of the ‘ticker stocks’ in 1929-37 that raised the price of car and radio companies like RCA to 500 $ .
- 72 years latter in 2001 we lived the crash of e-money that raised stocks of companies like Yahoo also over the 500 $ mark.
And then after that massive crash, e-money kept evolving in new ‘financial instruments’, mortgage derivatives. So after a short 7.2 cycle we had again a massive crash of e-money, the present crisis, 72 years after the 1937 climatic crisis of the ticker economy.
In that sense, the reader must be aware that money in the Industrial age is ‘invented’ with machines; and so when a new form of money appears, those who control the ‘money-making machines’, the financial industries and in a few ‘real democracies’ the governments elected by the people, will ‘print money’ with any excuse. And at a certain moment of the cycle, they will print so much money and make so many machines that the market of machines and money will become saturated. Money then will loose all value, as there will be much more money than ‘real valuable assets’ and the economy will crash.
Cyclical economics is the only model able to predict the future as all ‘real sciences’ do.
For all those reasons, even if I didn’t know that bankers will use mortgage to invent e-money, I could forecast the cycle, as earlier as 1994: I knew they would found a excuse to invent ‘data’, e-money, financial information. As they found the excuse of new train companies in the 1850s and new radio and car companies in the 1920s. What mattered then is that paper-stocks could be printed with ‘monetary value’; and what mattered in the 1920s is that the electric ticker could create ‘added value’ to shares, with electric impulses. In the late 1990s and 2000s what mattered in Wall Street is that by typing in a screen you could create ‘numbers’ that were money.
So Greed guided again the 2000s, as it did the 1920s, because it was so easy to print money. e-money was created in so huge quantities that at the peak Wall Street created for free 5 trillions of ‘money data’ per year, till the new tulips, dotcoms and CDOs, lost value and suddenly we had ‘trillions’ of data money which are worth nothing as the worthless train companies of the 1850s bubble.
Real sciences are able to predict the future, always in the same manner – by studying the cycles of the past and forecast its recurrences in the future. So astrology became astronomy when Kepler found those cycles and predicted the future position of planets. Otherwise a science is either a series of myths, or a praxis that collects data. This is the present state of ‘classic economics’ that collects data, believes in a series of ‘myths about the market’ and never forecasts the future of the economy.
The difference between the economic model of this web and that of classic economics is thus obvious. Because we have spotted a series of recurrent cycles and found its rational causes the model of cyclical economics is closer to the epistemological definition of a ‘real science’.
There is no magic about it, though people become very surprised when they see the cover of my books of 1994 and 2001 predicting the ‘crash of the electronic economy’ in 2008. People wouldn’t be surprised though if an astronomer predicts an eclipse, except if you were living in the Neolithic… Only the fact that economics has not evolved scientifically but as a praxis of power and greed explains in that sense the ‘primitive state’ of this science. The intention of this web is therefore to ‘evolve scientifically’ our understanding of history and economics according to those cycles, the first step in any science in which human beings wish to control the future of the species they study. Thus this web is dedicated not only to economists but mainly to politicians, the people that should control and guide the future of history, of mankind. Today that future is increasingly controlled by economists, without a full understanding of what they do. And that is the main cause of the problems of history and this planet. We are walking into the future with blind eyes.
The generational cycle.
In those earlier models I was able to forecast the crashes, because the long-short cycle of 72-8 years had already had two happenings: 1857, train crash + 72 years = 1929, car crash+72 years =2001, electronic NASDAQ crash, whose curve is parallel to that of the present crisis.
72 years is the ‘generational cycle’ of human life, the mean life of all the humans that control a nation through a grand-father, father, son dinasty.
Then in each crisis there is a short 7-8 years recurrence. And so after the 1929 there was a massive crash in 1937 that moved the world into war. And so after 2001 there have been a 2008 crash… And now we enter in a very ugly period of history.
And that other side of the economy, the collateral effects that it has in history, in mankind, which is mostly ignored by economists, is what I have always been interested in. And what we shall consider in depth, in the past, present and future in this web, by tracing the parallelisms between the 3 crashes.
The underlying cause: the evolution of machines and its energies.
I know today most people don’t care about history, they only care about money and this is the biggest error of mankind, and the biggest error of economists. Because economics is NOT a mathematical science but a social science with mathematical, biological and organic cycles related to the nature of its 2 main components, humans and machines, systems of energy and information that imitate and enhance human functions (so we move faster with cars and hear further with phones that are ‘metal-legs’, and ‘metal-ears’).
This is the second big step I gave towards the fundation of a true science of economics and history… Let us then consider an scheme of those economical cycles, as a first step to fully understand the most important science and the less understood of all of them.
Today most Money in the economy has the form of stocks. But ‘stocks’ are mostly ‘species of machines’ . Around 75% of the world economy today is related to the main machines manufactured and sold by companies, its energy and its information, not to the agricultural energy and verbal information, natural to human beings. And this very surprising fact – that machines have all the energy and digital information they need and humans don’t is one of the main collateral effects of the obsession of economists and companies for money, technology and productivity. It sets another basic theme of this web: the difference between the economic ecosystem (aka Free Market) as it is, guided by a single-idea(l), to increase profits by producing and selling more machines, and the world of history and the humankind, as it could be if the economic ecosystem were guided by a real science, and the reproduction of money and machines were regulated properly to benefit mankind as a whole, not a small group of ‘stockrats’, owners of companies…
In a few words, we do not live at all in the best economic ecosystem. And so along the articles of this web we shall consider always reality as it is, guided by ‘greed’, by the invisible hand of Mr. Smith; and then ‘dream’ of a sustainable world made to the image and likeness of man, as it could be, if the repeated attempts to create a real science of history and economics that date back to the times of Vico would have not been repressed and aborted by the mass-actions of millions of human beings seeking only ‘money’ without even knowing what money is.
In that sense, the first step to understand modern history and free markets is the understanding of ‘money’, a language of information made of metal (gold in the past, paper-stocks and computer e-money today, that represent companies of machines).
Because money is a language, it gives ‘values’ to things, through prices. And because money is mostly today in stocks, the creation and evolution of money is related to the evolution of machines and technology.
Thus, the evolution, reproduction, sale and use of the machines of the ‘economic ecosystem’, is hardly studied by financial economics is the key to both the evolution of modern history and the economy.
The 4 long cycles of the Industrial R=evolution of machines.
The Industrial Revolution is the evolution of machines of energy. And it has gone arelady through 3 motings: from the age of steam energies, to the age of chemical energies, to the age of electronic machines that now ends.
So we have the advantage of being able to compare 3 of them to establish a fairly simple, clear and accurate model of the past, present and future of this crisis.
In the graph we can see the 4 cycles as they develop in history and economics.
Yet the ultimate origin of it all is even simpler. We are what we eat and machines are the energies they eat, which evolve both in terms of energetic potency, and capacity tobbreak into streams of information. And they have done so 3 times:
1784-Steam/British Age – 1857- Chemical /GermanAge – 1929- Electr(on)ic/US age- 2008: Singularity age.
In the graph we draw those 3 cycles in more detail.
Evolution is the why that explains the mathematical how of those cycles.
I forecast the present cycle during my Masters at Columbia University, 15 years ago, based on the existence of 2 previous cycles which I calculated properly for the first time, departing from Kondratieff’s work, a Russian economist who observed the first ‘train cycle’. His error though was to analyze the train cycle of Russia, which was shorter because as an underdeveloped country, Russia received the train much latter than Europe or America, where the long cycle turned out to be 72 years. This correction allowed me to calculate and study the 2 previous cycle and the one we live now: the crisis of the electronic economy.
Because indeed, the long Kondratieff cycles of evolution of machines are the core element of a biological, cyclical analysis of the Industrial R=evolution. In the Industrial r=evolution mankind evolve machines each human generation of 72 years; and those cycles are the main cycles of the Economy.
To study them, till now humans have used an abstract language called economics, mainly referred to money, the language humans use to organize the re=production of machines in ‘company-mothers’.
We want to introduce a new biological language that better describes ‘scientifically’ an ‘economic ecosystem’ and its complex organic relationships, proper of the science of complexity, in which I am a recognized pioneer.
Why? Because we humans are living beings and we create machines as systems of energy and information that expand our skills as organisms. Thus machines, company-mothers and the economy must be studied in reference to man as ‘organisms and organic functions’ that imitate our living organisms.
Further on, since biological cycles can be analyzed as repetitive structures and biological systems are studied as systems of energy and information, we can apply to the study of machines many biological laws well known, which happen to describe with astonishing precision and insight the processes of re=production r=evolution and organization of economic ecosystems (free markets), company-mothers (systems that reproduce, sell and adapt the Earth to their ‘stocks’ of machines)…
In this web we will reveal some of those systems, cycles and processes, in the context of the existence of man on Earth – in the context of History.
The details of the 2008 crash.
In essence, at the end of those cycles there is paradoxically, at the height of the reproduction of money and machines of the highest price (weapons) a deep crisis for the human economy and a Great Depression, as machines and forms of money created with those energies become over-reproduced, saturating the economic ecosystem. Thus, the details of the 3 crashes are similar:
In the age of steam machines, there is a peak in stock-money issues of worthless train companies in the 1850s, precisely when the best railroad lines had been constructed and the new ones were loosing money – not because people thought they were profitable, but because the business of inventing stocks had reached its evolving peak. Meanwhile the 2 commonest jobs of the age, farming and transport, greatly diminished, as prices and revenues for farmers, lowered due to the efficiency of train transport; while 90% of horses were killed in a decade in England, when the train put them out of work.
In 1928, there was a peak in the creation of new stocks in companies of cars and radios, when RCA shares reached an astonishing 500 $ value, precisely when the slump in consumption of cars had started in earnest, as all Americans had their Ford-T. Yet the electric ticker, the equivalent to e-money in the 1920s, had been implanted in small towns and was sucking in money from the middle class all over America to satisfy the ‘Ponzi Pyramids’ of Wall Street speculation in radio’s stocks. Then, in 1929 and 8 years latter in 1937, the physical and financial economy crashed together. While the reproduction of electric systems of automation in assembly lines at factories provoked also a massive wave of unemployment.
Thus, we are today in a self-similar age to the 1929-37 crashes of the ‘ticker’ economy, when e-money has reproduced massively, as financiers learned to maximize its electronic invention, while in the physical economy robots and electronic software have thrown out of job millions of blue and white collar workers in a massive wave of unemployment and the first ‘splendid little wars’ that will take companies out of the crises are essayed in Afghanistan with drone planes, which evolve fast to become the Terminators of a new age of war.
The ‘negative side effects’ of each of the final ‘boom’ ages of reproduction and evolution of machines, weapons and money, of the ‘wealth of nations’, which implies machines not only enhance our life but compete and displace human labor and soldiers, is the reality of modern history nobody wants to talk about or even publish, since Adam Smith established the economic dogma that all machines are good, and the more we have the better, because they are money, the invisible hand of go(l)d, we must not argue. We prefer to be optimist, to hide our sins, to ignore the suffering of the people money and machines rule. But denial has never changed the consequences of those cycles for mankind…
Indeed, in the 20 years since I discovered these cycles, correcting the work of Mr. Kondratieff thanks to the use of fractal equations I developped in my pioneer work in Complexity sciences, my work has been censored by ‘mainstream’ economic magazines. I can’t recount how many times I have sent articles like this page to ‘The Economist’ and other magazines that create public opinion. Not even after the cycles happened, and I sent my old books with those articles as a proof of the predictive power of ‘biological economics’ the cycles have been given to the public. Censorship thus have become a key factor in the ‘religion of greed’, the ‘leit motiv’ of financial companies whose ‘economic experts’ will be in denial of the ‘submissive’ role economics, money and machines should play in the context of history, which is the life of mankind and all its cultures, whose improvement should be the supreme goal of the science of economics and history.
For that reason, you probably would have never heard of my work, which is only published in the web. And yet denial and censorship of the laws of the Universe by human beings, guided by self-interested, blind agendas, have never changed those laws. Only scientists who know those laws can bend them and use them to profit the humankind. And this is what economists have forgotten with their religion of greed, covered by a ‘newspeak’ of ‘experts’, ‘damned lies and statistics’.
For that reason, scientists, economists and policy-makers need to understand those cycles and work together in the design of a global economical model that controls the bad fruits of the tree of science, the excesses of the free electronic reproduction of money and the evolution of nuclear weapons, while fostering clean energies and technologies that enhance the life of man in this planet.
For that reason, also this web has two sides, the side of economics, dedicated to a mathematical analysis of those cycles, and the side of History dedicated to study the ‘people’ who invented economics, their relationship with mankind, and the consequences for human life of this cycles and the evolution of money and machines, which we explain in the screens and articles dedicated to the cycles of history. Since while money and machines are always ‘good’ for economists, they have dual values for ‘historians’, which have been explained since the age of Genesis, when the first forms of ‘metal’, golden apples and bronze swords appeared.
Thus, it follows that the overproduction of e-money and chips is the underlying reason of the present economical crisis, beyond the details of the mortgage crash – which was the last excuse to invent money with electronic programs of speculation, once the 2001 dotcom bubble busted speculation in stock shares. Yet the new instruments of reproduction of fast money with computers were still there and so a new excuse was found.
Because the complex model of evolutionary economics of this blog is based in the longer trend of evolution of money, energies and machines, we forecasted 20 years ago, with the first models of electronic production of money that we would live in the 2000s a parallel age of ‘irrational exhuberance’ similar to the massive reproduction of electric, speculative machines - of ticker money in the 20s.
Money is a bit of information of a language, which is by essence as all forms of in/form/ation, inflationary, easy to reproduce; and so when a new form of reproduction of money is found, its reproduction find no limit till money looses value and markets crash.
The ‘excuse’ to print e-money in a screen, we forecast then would be stock Internet companies, as radio/car companies were the excuse in 1929 and stocks of train companies in the 1850s.
We didn’t imagine that real estate derivatives would play that role in the 2008 post crash, parallel to the 37 post-crash (which happened a short economic cycle of 7 years after the main crash).
We are not gurus, only complex theorists that used fractal algorithms to tabulate the cycles of economics and a wise understanding of history and its organic systems.
In that regard, we can compare this crisis with a similar transformation that happened in history about 70 years ago. The happy 90s looked like the happy 20s. But suddenly the World changed into the warring 2000s, as the 20s changed into the ominous 30s. In both ages a tremendous crash on global stock-markets, due to the overproduction of machines (radios and cars in 1929 and 1937, electronic goods in 2001 and 2008), sunk the economy, increasing unemployment and social inequality.
That historical similarity is not trivial. It is a cyclical change that modern history experiences every ±72 years, a period that historians call the Generational, Human Cycle (nt.1), since it is the mean biological cycle of 3 human generations – grand-father, father and son. Indeed, if we go 72 years backwards in time, we see a similar crisis happening globally after a period of industrial growth guided by the steam engine, which lasted through the happy 1850s, marked by the railroad craze . . .
Then in 1857 the overproduction of railroads crashed the industry worldwide and history turned upside down. In the middle of that crisis, the ominous 1860s brought wars fought with armored trains and steamers in America (Civil War), Europe (the Italian & German Unification wars) and Asia (Sepoy Revolt in India, II Opium Wars). So during the Industrial Revolution, every ±72 years the world changes, after a big economic crisis, from a happy time to an age of war and destruction, from an age of machines to an age of weapons, the age that now begins worldwide. And it all starts in the financial economy; because the reproduction of money reaches a peak at the same time the reproduction of machines saturates the market and becomes reconverted into weapons.
The causes of that exact 72±8 year cycle of global stock-crashes are simple. The Industrial Revolution is in fact the Evolution of Machines and Money, energetic and informative systems, traditionally made of metal, which can be studied with the laws of morphology and evolution. Machines and money evolve according to the energy and information, they use to become re=produced.
humans evolve a new type of energy and information, derived from that energy, which renews all the machines and financial instruments of the economy every human generation of 72 years, in which a nation of ‘founding fathers’, captains of industries, their sons and grand-sons, reproduce and evolve a new energy, machine and form of money to its perfection. Yet at the end of the cycle, the machine and money becomes over-reproduced, saturating the market and provoking, due to a crisis of growth, a global economical crash.
Those generations also bring the nation that discovered the new energy to the top predator status of history. Because energy is also the substance of which weapons are made.
—Thus, we had an age of steam machines, the age of England, between 1780s and 1857, followed by a crisis of overproduction of steam machines and stock-money that brought
the 1857±7 years crashes of the train-based economy.
—From 1857 to 1929, we lived in the age of electro-chemical energies, machines and chemical explosives, dominated by Germany, followed by a crisis of overproduction of cars and radios, which caused the 1929 crash, 72 years after the train crash.
—It came then the III cycle of electronic machines, electronic money and Nuclear Bombs that took place from 1929-2001, the age of America; which again ended in the dotcom and mortgage crashes, 72+7 years after 1929.
- Followed by the Age of the singularity, the IV Cycle of Evolution of machines, dominated by robots, solar Industries, Quark Bombs and China. Because scientists call a black hole, the type of quark ‘bombs’ now researched at CERNa singularity; and they also call the arrival of Artificial Intelligence, the Singularity moment, we have called this 4th age of the Industrial Revolution, the age of the Singularity.
Thus, a biological analysis of Free Markets shows the need to regulate the evolution of technology, pruning the bad fruits of the tree of science, weapons, robots and polluting industries, as we do with lethal organisms (virus, predators) to limit their competence with mankind, while fostering biological,Human Goods needed for our survival (agriculture, education, housing, verbal ethics, health, environment),which also provide more labor, as they are reproduced or created by human beings, if we want to make the world safer and sustainable for life . . .
The previous cycles, called the Kondratieff cycles of the economy, are known to economists, but their use is reduced to charting profits in the stock-market and other financial aspects of the economy, despite their huge social and historic implications. Unfortunately, guided by profits, economics pretends to be a ‘mathematical’ science, independent of History, uninterested in the collateral effects of the production of machines, money and weapons might cause to mankind.
For that reason, it is imperative to understand technology in biological terms, abandoning the mathematical, abstract approach of classic economics, which cannot understand those cycles of evolution, neither studies the ‘real’ competence and collateral effects some lethal machines are having on mankind – from global warming, produced by the ‘detritus of those machines’, to the massive wave of unemployment that robotics is causing, to the risks poised by the evolution of Nuclear Weapons, into the threshold of ‘planetary bombs’ – quark bombs and black holes that can potentially destroy the planet. In that regard, a Free Market is an ‘economic ecosystem’, regulated by a language of information called money and ruled by company-mothers, whose aim is to re=produce and evolve machines, simple organisms of metal that imitate the functions of energy and information of the human being. As a result the Earth becomes terraformed, from a carbon-life ecosystem (Gaia), ruled by human organizations (Governments) and human languages (verbal laws) into an economic ecosystem (Free Market), dominated by company-mothers, money and machines, which enhance our energy and information but also compete and substitute man in war and labor fields . . .
A detailed analysis of the cycle of 72 years of evolution of energies and machines explains what all the models of classic economics
have failed to understand: money also follows a cycle of evolution and reproduction,
related to the machines used to ‘invent’ it, today electronic machines, which have not only saturated
the world with hardware but also with e-money software, till money lost value.
Because money is reproduced also with machines, its cycleis parallel to the cycle of machines of the economy
Thus, we predicted, parallel to the crisis of overproduction of computers, also a financial crisis of e-money, made with Pcs, similar to the 29 crash of the ‘ticker money’ economy, which jacked up prices of stock with electric machines into surreal levels. Indeed, there is every 72 years a huge crash in the stock-market with 2 short ±8 years ripples, due to an over-production of money and machines, which plunges the world into a global depression, till the new cycle of energies and new machines takes off, creating new industries and jobs that replace those of the previous cycle.
The boom and bust cycle of the global economy is both, a cycle of reproduction of energy, weapons, machines and economical information, money, as all of them are related. 3 negative effects are paramount:
- Machines throw people out of work.
- Weapons kill them in wars.
- And too much money causes inflation, absorbs savings and when the bubble of false value explodes, it ruins the economy of the Middle class.
Those effects are studied in more detail in the featured articles dedicated to ‘economics’ you will find scrolling down this web.
Money is a language/software of information, whose ‘hardware’ evolves in each cycle.
All this said, it should be obvious that the present crisis is the result of the exhaustion of the longest cycle of Economical activity, called the Kondratieff cycle (nt.2), which defines the evolution of energy and the machines and money manufactured with it, the 2 main non-human elements of the economy.
The exhaustion of the 2 previous Kondratieff cycles (nt.2) of steam and chemical energies were responsible for 2 other huge crashes of the Economy of the Industrial R=evolution, the crash of the train, in 1857 and the crash of the car & radio stocks of 1929. Now we live the crash of the electronic-economy based in e-money and computers.
The regularity and phases of those crashes which i anticipated 20 years ago in my thesis at Columbia University (nt.3) are shown in the previous graph.
Those ‘structural crashes’ are caused by a change in the energy we use and hence a change in the evolution of machines that use such energy and also in the money of the economy created with new mechanical systems:
- In 1857 the world lived the crash of paper-stocks parallel to the exhaustion of the train age.
- 72 years latter it lived the crash of the ‘ticker stocks’ in 1929-37 that raised the price of car and radio companies like RCA to 500 $ .
- 72 years latter in 2001 we lived the crash of e-money that raised stocks of companies like Yahoo also over the 500 $ mark.
And then after that massive crash, e-money kept evolving in new ‘financial instruments’, mortgage derivatives. So after a short 7.2 cycle we had again a massive crash of e-money, the present crisis, 72 years after the 1937 climatic crisis of the ticker economy.
In that sense, the reader must be aware that money in the Industrial age is ‘invented’ with machines; and so when a new form of money appears, those who control the ‘money-making machines’, the financial industries and in a few ‘real democracies’ the governments elected by the people, will ‘print money’ with any excuse. And at a certain moment of the cycle, they will print so much money and make so many machines that the market of machines and money will become saturated. Money then will loose all value, as there will be much more money than ‘real valuable assets’ and the economy will crash.
Then there are two solutions to the crisis: a welfare state with investments in human goods and a militaristic state with investment in weapons. The first one is the proper solution. But weapons are more expensive than human goods, healthcare, education, agricultural and textile goods. So countries and politicos, corrupted by lobbies and big corporations prefer ‘cannons to butter’. And so within a decade of the big crash, the world increasingly enters in an age of small, big and finally global wars. Since investments in weapons must be justified by hate-speeches, enemies that become real and corpses that further increase the need for new weapons. ‘Bellum ipse aleat’ – war feeds itself – said Charles X during the 30 years war. ‘Pecunia Bellum nervi’ – money is the never of war – said the Romans.
The post-crash age: keynesian militarism, ‘cannons instead of butter’.
We live now in the 3rd age of the cycle of overproduction of machines – a new age of Keynesian militarism, which is the economical newspeak means an age of overproduction of speculative money and war machines, at the end of each of the 3 cycles of the Industrial R-evolution. But instead of vaporettes and armed trains that killed ‘primitive’ Africans and Indians in the 1860s and the age of fascism in the 30s that killed primitive Slav and Jewish peasants with tanks (reconverted cars that multiplied by 5 the profits of Mercedes under the rule of that Keynesian Militarist, Mr. Hitler), the Bushes brought about the transformation of Pcs into big brother cameras and transformed robots into predators and soon terminators.
Meanwhile since complex systems are symbiosis, not only money and weapons contribute to the age of war but also the mass-media system creates the information, the memes of hate, needed for the population to love the murder for profits of non-technological people.
Those machines which deliver the memes of hate have also evolved and the non-technological people we kill have also changed.
- So we moved from hate-newspapers (yellow press) that explained us how primitive were the Negroes and violent the Indians we killed in the 1860s, as we ‘civilized’ them.
- Into hate-radio, when the Nazis explained us how eviL were the Jewish rats of the polish ghettos and the slav(e)s of the communist monster to the East. And how unjust had been Europeans with the great, clean, technological, sport-loving beautiful Aryan ubermensch, taking from them the ‘historic territories to the East’, origin of the Aryan superace.
- And so finally now, in the III age of Keynesian Militarism, Jewish-Americans have convinced us through hate-tv of the need Israel has of the ‘historic territories to the East’ origin of the Chosen people.
And so now it is required to massacre during the 3rd age of Keynesian militarism those female-abuser, Israeli-haters, terrorists from primitive Islam – a hopeless religion of death we are told – and we have believed them. This new age of Keynesian militarism has merely started, and yet it consumes around 1 trillion $ a year in weapon budgets for the defense of our people.
The end of course will be the biggest death toll of history both of the poor and ourselves, as the process brings also massive poverty in our countries, where all the money goes to weapons production and mental hypnotism with messages of death. censorship though of blogs like this one and the true humanist science of biohistory will continue till the end.
And if humans survive, once all has happened, only then the myths and fantasies that brought our destruction will seem absurd to belief. Because in a complex system, it is a tenant of complexity sciences that the parts are always ignorants of the whole purpose and program of the superorganism in which they live.
Now, the reader will become shocked by this fact. 2008 was parallel to 1937, the 2nd crisis of the electro-mechanical economy that plunged Europe in war, as Hitler decided to pump up the economy with military investments. So if we consider the parallel cycles of history, 2001 was 1929, the bust of e-money and car companies. Then 2 Keynesian militarists, Hitler and Bush came to power.
all this we have explained in our one decade old, massively ignored webs and books. But censorship has not changed history, because in a complex system, the parts, in this case the human parts, do not need to know the whole process to play their part. and so the bushes played the part of the first Hitler. and now we live in 1939… And indeed war is escalating budgets. The human character doesn’t matter. The name is irrelevant, in systems, individual cells are not relevant, only the cyclical, physiological cycles. This of course will attack the go of Mr. Obama as it would attack the ego of Mr. Hitler to tell him, he was just another Keynesian militarist finding excuses to make weapons; as it would attack Mr. Disraeli to explain him that his imperial colonialism with vaporettes and trains was not empire-buidling but profit building.
But that is what it is: humans are just moved by profits and greed’s, like automatons of a self-destructive program and now they are entering the worst of all phases of those cycles.
In the beginning of III world war, whose first expression happens as we speak in the Afghan and Libyan scenarios, the equivalent to the Spanish civil wars of the 1936-39 period…
And yet, because of the censorship of alternative theories of economics, the world doesn’t know that ‘history rhymes’ (Mark Twain) and we are at the brink of a global age of war.
We live in a complex economic system not in a democracy most time of our lives.
Indeed, the main problem about the world we live in is its complexity. In the past, people understood the nature of history and economics with far more simplicity. History was about mankind and it was understood, we humans were all equal and evolved through social love into harmonic societies. The arrow ofEusocial evolution turned out to be the arrow that dominates the Universe and what complexity does is to study how millions or billions of individuals of the same species emerge as a single whole, a superorganism.
Economics was also understood. It was about money and somehow it was different from History, because in History we bonded together with ethic wor(l)ds, laws and religious ideals, using our natural language in which the syntax man (subject) <verb (action) < object (energy) always put man at the center of the Universe. In history we were the measure of all things.
In Economics however, money which was a piece of informative metal, gold or silver or recently when the gold standard disappeared, e-money, bits of information in a computer mind, could be exchanged in equal conditions with men and objects. So this language and its values, man=object=price, were somehow diminishing of our place in the Universe. As an object we could be bought for a price, money, first as slaves, then as part time slaves with a salary. And so as the language of money substituted the language of words and occupied most of the actions in this planet, the world switched from one ecosystem dominated by history into an ecosystem dominated by economics.
This is what people seem to forget. That during most of its awaken time they follow economical orders, not historical (political, religious, social) orders and so they do not live in a democracy, an accessory system, which hardly rules our lives except in the free time we do not spend working and with our family (in which case we are ruled by biological mandates proper of all living beings). We live in a complex system ruled by money and the nature of that complex system is what this web unveils with the laws of… complexity.
Indeed, any ecosystem is ruled by a language of information whose syntax defines the actions performed under its orders. When we follow the orders of money we follow the previous syntax, man=price=object.
What this means is that we compete constantly in equal conditions with objects in fields of work (industrial system) and in fields of war (military system) as soldiers killed by weapons and workers subject to a self-similar monetary equation, productivity = capital/labor. When capital=machines are better than us, we labor are displaced because there are not ethical, verbal values that tell us we are superior to machines due to thsoe ethical values and we cannot be fired. When we are killed by a weapon, we are not told this is wrong, but simply a machine has efficiently consumed us.
However one of the fundamental tenants of complexity, is that the system is far more complex than its parts. By this, we mean that the parts obey the ‘language of information’ – the cells its nervous orders, the human its monetary orders – without ever realizin of what the whole is, what all the parts are constructing. The parts have a role but they ignore the whole. The cells do not know they are part of the organism of life which has its own goals and purpose; and humans ignore all about the complex system they are creating with money, weapons and machines they reproduce in labor fields and consume in war fields.
And that is why we need complexity as a science, because all those systems are self-similar and we can therefore explain what the ‘market’ where we live and labor most of our awakening time is constructing with money, weapons and machines: a super-organism; the most complex, powerful and efficient superorganism ever created on planet Earth, the financial->military->industrial complex, in which money (The financial system), under the laws derived of its syntactic capacity to value all what exists in this planet, construct according to those values a military-industrial complex, in whichhumans have 2 purposes: to work=reproduce the machines of that complex, and to consume=vitalize and evolve those machines. We are evolving a superorganism of machines, the economic ecosystem, in which we are equal in value to a machine of work or war with whom we are compared with a price.90% of our lives are spent either working in companies, consuming machines or following biological drives NOT following laws and goverment’s orders. Thus bankers and corporations Not politicians create, cre(dit)ate the world with monetary orders; and those orders value machines and weapons more than life:
In the graph, the real structure of power that cre(dit)ates our future with money orders. It is a very complex system with 3 basic type of orders:
- Salaries, which select humans or machines in a competitive field of labor, under the equation man=price=machine; so if a machine is more productive than a human being, we fire the workers and increase the ‘productivity’ of the industry with new machines.
- Bonds, credits and campaign money and bribes, which control political systems, governments and politicians. All of them therefore protect the monopoly of power of bankers and corporations that print money in stocks and beg for that money. There are two type of politicos – those who are paid by industries that produce consumption goods and prefer the peaceful substitution and obsolescence of workers and humans to machines that atrophy us, and are generally termed as left wing or democratic parties, and those who prefer to run amok faster for profits, which are paid by war industries that have the highest profits as the values of metal-money give weapons the maximal price. Those are conservative, war parties. Today they dominate due to the increasing obsolescence and lack of credit of humans, the industrial panorama. Finally there are the intellectuals, ‘the experts’ that sanctify the system. In the past they were military inquisitions that promoted religious war and go(l)d churches that told us money was the invisible hand ofGod. Now it is a bit more sophisticated. They use equations to the same end. On the bottom of the pyramid there are beings without price, nature, aliens, 3rd world. Those people are outside the economic ecosystem and live in theFreedom of chaos, without money to give orders, get goods and survive. This bottom will increase constantly as a barrier of machines, robots and monetary orders separate the informative castes of societies – those who invent the language of power – from the bulk of human beings obeying those orders. And so a barrier is being created between the 1% and the rest of society, a barrier of ‘machines’ which control that 99% through the mass of workers of corporations and states.
Cyclical economics is the only model able to predict the future as all ‘real sciences’ do.
For all those reasons, the cycle described here works automatically guided by the laws of greed and evolution of machines. When i forecasted this crisis, as earlier as 1994, I knew the evolution of e-money would allow to print enormous amounts, and the best way to spend it would be in expensive machines, weapons and information machines. I knew bankers and economistswould found a excuse to invent ‘data’, e-money, financial information. As they found the excuse of new train companies in the 1850s and new radio and car companies in the 1920s. What mattered then was that paper-stocks could be printed with ‘monetary value’; and what mattered in the 1920s is that the electric ticker could create ‘added value’ to shares, with electric impulses. In the late 1990s and 2000s what mattered in Wall Street is that by typing in a screen you could create ‘numbers’ that were money.
So Greed guided again the 2000s, as it did the 1920s, because it was so easy to print money. e-money was created in so huge quantities that at the peak Wall Street created for free 5 trillions of ‘money data’ per year, till the new tulips, dotcoms and CDOs, lost value and suddenly we had ‘trillions’ of data money which are worth nothing as the worthless train companies of the 1850s bubble.
Real sciences are able to predict the future, always in the same manner – by studying the cycles of the past and forecast its recurrences in the future. So astrology became astronomy when Kepler found those cycles and predicted the future position of planets. Otherwise a science is either a series of myths, or a praxis that collects data. This is the present state of ‘classic economics’ that collects data, believes in a series of ‘myths about the market’ and never forecasts the future of the economy.
The difference between the economic model of this web and that of classic economics is thus obvious. Because we have spotted a series of recurrent cycles and found its rational causes the model of cyclical economics is closer to the epistemological definition of a ‘real science’.
There is no magic about it, though people become very surprised when they see the cover of my books of 1994 and 2001 predicting the ‘crash of the electronic economy’ in 2008. People wouldn’t be surprised though if an astronomer predicts an eclipse, except if you were living in the Neolithic… Only the fact that economics has not evolved scientifically but as a praxis of power and greed explains in that sense the ‘primitive state’ of this science. The intention of this web is therefore to ‘evolve scientifically’ our understanding of history and economics according to those cycles, the first step in any science in which human beings wish to control the future of the species they study. Thus this web is dedicated not only to economists but mainly to politicians, the people that should control and guide the future of history, of mankind. Today that future is increasingly controlled byeconomists, without a full understanding of what they do. And that is the main cause of the problems of history and this planet. We are walking into the future with blind eyes (nt.4).
The generational cycle.
In those earlier models I was able to forecast the crashes (nt.3) because the long-short cycle of 72-8 years had already had two happenings: 1857, train crash + 72 years = 1929, car crash+72 years =2001, electronic NASDAQ crash, whose curve is parallel to that of the present crisis.
72 years is the ‘generational cycle’ of human life (nt.1), the mean life of all the humans that control a nation through a grand-father, father, son dinasty.
Then in each crisis there is a short 7-8 years recurrence. And so after the 1929 there was a massive crash in 1937 that moved the world into war. And so after 2001 there have been a 2008 crash… And now we enter in a very ugly period of history.
And that other side of the economy, the collateral effects that it has in history, in mankind, which is mostly ignored by economists, is what I have always been interested in. And what we shall consider in depth, in the past, present and future in this web, by tracing the parallelisms between the 3 crashes.
The underlying cause: the evolution of machines and its energies.
I know today most people don’t care about history, they only care about money and this is the biggest error of mankind, and the biggest error ofeconomists. Because economics is NOT a mathematical science but a social science with mathematical, biological and organic cycles related to the nature of its 2 main components, humans and machines, systems of energy and information that imitate and enhance human functions (so we move faster with cars and hear further with phones that are ‘metal-legs’, and ‘metal-ears’).
This is the second big step I gave towards the foundation of a true science of economics and history… Let us then consider an scheme of those economical cycles, as a first step to fully understand the most important science and the less understood of all of them.
Today most Money in the economy has the form of stocks. But ‘stocks’ are mostly ‘species of machines’ . Around 75% of the world economy today is related to the main machines manufactured and sold by companies, its energy and its information, not to the agricultural energy and verbal information, natural to human beings. And this very surprising fact – that machines have all the energy and digital information they need and humans don’t is one of the main collateral effects of the obsession of economists and companies for money, technology and productivity. It sets another basic theme of this web: the difference between the economic ecosystem (aka Free Market) as it is, guided by a single-idea(l), to increase profits by producing and selling more machines, and the world of history and the humankind, as it could be if theeconomic ecosystem were guided by a real science, and the reproduction of money and machines were regulated properly to benefit mankind as a whole, not a small group of ‘stockrats’, owners of companies…
We live in a plutocracy where the financial->military->industrial complex rules all other systems of society and that system is itself ruled by bankers who invent money and invest mainly in the most expensive objects of the economy, weapons and machines. And that is the reason why there are so many weapons and war and police and bankers have so much power, and those tribes who have specialized in inventing money, specifically the Am Segullah or People of the Treasure are today ruling the world and globalizing its memes and ideals.
Both systems have on top an ‘informative’ people-caste that controls the language of creation – priests and politicians in civilization and nations that issue laws; financial masters and the military in stockracies and dictatorships in which orders are given with money or imposed with weapons. But today the word people do not create the world, they do not cre(dit)ate it.
One of the tenants of complexity though is that the whole is more complex than the parts, which do not necessarily understand what is their role in the organism. A cell doesn’t know it lives in a body; and so, the system appears under the programs of complex creation, called emergence, without ‘confabulation theories’. Of course there are people on top that know they are ruling but they do so in a modular way, guided by collective memes who as genes in an organism do not necessarily express clearly what is their purpose in the whole.
By this we mean, bankers rule, give bonds and credit to politicians, money to corporations that hire humans and reproduce machines, but the are not necessarily aware of what their rule means for mankind. They merely try to multiply money with their financial instruments and know by trial and error that to invest money in weapons and machines and war gives higher profits. This is called Keynesian militarism and it is what today is essayed to come out of the crisis. Its consequences are trying, but again this ‘future’ is not understood. So we are ruled without a science of economics by the values of greed, tribal warfare and we have on top one tribe who invents money and has a tribal agenda. But that agenda doesn’t coincide with the overall process of creation of a superorganism of machines, the global market, because they ignore what they are creating or rather cre(dit)ating; and moreover they are not really interested. The parts of the complex system have their automaton functions, programmed by genes (biological systems), memes (cultural and economic ecosystems), geometrical forms (physical equations of particles), or algorythms (computer systems). And while some of those informative programs are more strict than others – complexity increases chaos andFreedom in any system – it seems quite obvious that the program of greed=money, of murder=weapons is quite strong in this planet. And in fact by the laws of affinity, people who invent money have traditionally also invented war and have been purveyors of military gear, because weapons ofmetal are the natural, complementary system of metal-information, money. So we humans have always paid the maximal amount of money for weapons.
And this of course, explains the world we live in, today as in the 30s, after the 29 crash, ruled by Keynesian militarism , since we are cre(dit)ating wars with ideological and security excuses but with the clear purpose of making money. What was first the egg (the war) or the chicken (the scaring ideologies of hate and fear that sustained it). It is obvious that war was first, because if we were able 20 years ago to forecast the future, according to the cycles of profits, bust and boom of machine and weapon creation – without even knowing what ideologies of fear wold appear, is because we forecast that greed will find excuses for war when making war was more profitable than making goods.
In a few words, we do not live at all in the best economic ecosystem. And so along the articles of this web we shall consider always reality as it is, guided by ‘greed’, by the invisible hand of Mr. Smith; and then ‘dream’ of a sustainable world made to the image and likeness of man, as it could be, if the repeated attempts to create a real science of history and economics that date back to the times of Vico would have not been repressed and aborted by the mass-actions of millions of human beings seeking only ‘money’ without even knowing what money is.
In that sense, the first step to understand modern history and free markets is the understanding of ‘money’, a language of information made of metal (gold in the past, paper-stocks and computer e-money today, that represent companies of machines).
Because money is a language, it gives ‘values’ to things, through prices. And because money is mostly today in stocks, the creation and evolution of money is related to the evolution of machines and technology.
Thus, the evolution, reproduction, sale and use of the machines of the ‘economic ecosystem’, is hardly studied by financial economics is the key to both the evolution of modern history and the economy.
The 4 long cycles of the Industrial R=evolution of machines.
The Industrial Revolution is the evolution of machines of energy. And it has gone arelady through 3 motings: from the age of steam energies, to the age of chemical energies, to the age of electronic machines that now ends.
So we have the advantage of being able to compare 3 of them to establish a fairly simple, clear and accurate model of the past, present and future of this crisis.
In the graph we can see the 4 cycles as they develop in history and economics.
Yet the ultimate origin of it all is even simpler. We are what we eat and machines are the energies they eat, which evolve both in terms of energetic potency, and capacity tobbreak into streams of information. And they have done so 3 times:
1784-Steam/British Age – 1857- Chemical /GermanAge – 1929- Electr(on)ic/US age- 2008: Singularity age.
In the graph we draw those 3 cycles in more detail.
Evolution is the why that explains the mathematical how of those cycles.
I forecast the present cycle during my Masters at Columbia University, 15 years ago, based on the existence of 2 previous cycles which I calculated properly for the first time, departing from Kondratieff’s work, a Russian economist who observed the first ‘train cycle’. His error though was to analyze the train cycle of Russia, which was shorter because as an underdeveloped country, Russia received the train much latter than Europe or America, where the long cycle turned out to be 72 years. This correction allowed me to calculate and study the 2 previous cycle and the one we live now: the crisis of the electronic economy.
Because indeed, the long Kondratieff cycles of evolution of machines are the core element of a biological, cyclical analysis of the Industrial R=evolution. In the Industrial r=evolution mankind evolve machines each human generation of 72 years; and those cycles are the main cycles of the Economy.
To study them, till now humans have used an abstract language called economics, mainly referred to money, the language humans use to organize the re=production of machines in ‘company-mothers’.
We want to introduce a new biological language that better describes ‘scientifically’ an ‘economic ecosystem’ and its complex organic relationships, proper of the science of complexity, in which I am a recognized pioneer.
Why? Because we humans are living beings and we create machines as systems of energy and information that expand our skills as organisms. Thus machines, company-mothers and the economy must be studied in reference to man as ‘organisms and organic functions’ that imitate our living organisms.
Further on, since biological cycles can be analyzed as repetitive structures and biological systems are studied as systems of energy and information, we can apply to the study of machines many biological laws well known, whichhappen to describe with astonishing precision and insight the processes of re=production r=evolution and organization of economic ecosystems (free markets), company-mothers (systems that reproduce, sell and adapt the Earth to their ‘stocks’ of machines)…
In this web we will reveal some of those systems, cycles and processes, in the context of the existence of man on Earth – in the context of History.
The details of the 2008 crash.
In essence, at the end of those cycles there is paradoxically, at the height of the reproduction of money and machines of the highest price (weapons) a deep crisis for the human economy and a Great Depression, as machines and forms of money created with those energies become over-reproduced, saturating the economic ecosystem. Thus, the details of the 3 crashes are similar:
In the age of steam machines, there is a peak in stock-money issues of worthless train companies in the 1850s, precisely when the best railroad lines had been constructed and the new ones were loosing money – not because people thought they were profitable, but because the business of inventing stocks had reached its evolving peak. Meanwhile the 2 commonest jobs of the age, farming and transport, greatly diminished, as prices and revenues for farmers, lowered due to the efficiency of train transport; while 90% of horses were killed in a decade in England, when the train put them out of work.
In 1928, there was a peak in the creation of new stocks in companies of cars and radios, when RCA shares reached an astonishing 500 $ value, precisely when the slump in consumption of cars had started in earnest, as all Americans had their Ford-T. Yet the electric ticker, the equivalent to e-money in the 1920s, had been implanted in small towns and was sucking in money from the middle class all over America to satisfy the ‘Ponzi Pyramids’ of Wall Street speculation in radio’s stocks. Then, in 1929 and 8 years latter in 1937, the physical and financial economy crashed together. While the reproduction of electric systems of automation in assembly lines at factories provoked also a massive wave of unemployment.
Thus, we are today in a self-similar age to the 1929-37 crashes of the ‘ticker’ economy, when e-money has reproduced massively, as financiers learned to maximize its electronic invention, while in the physical economy robots and electronic software have thrown out of job millions of blue and white collar workers in a massive wave of unemployment and the first ‘splendid little wars’ that will take companies out of the crises are essayed in Afghanistan with drone planes, which evolve fast to become the Terminators of a new age of war.
Machines are no longer consumed, but they keep reproducing and evolving in ever more perfect forms, weapons. So now industrialists convince politicians with bribes and lobbyism that we need war not diplomatic solutions to our conflicts, since now war is profitable, and allows the stocks of machines to diminish, as wars consume machines and human beings, often unemployed by the overproduction of machine-workers. And so the wave/cycle ends with the death of millions of human beings.
We are now entering into that phase of the wave: massive overproduction of computer machines sunk markets in 2001 and 2008. Soon the use ofcomputers to create a security big-brother world advanced with the excuse of terrorism. Diplomatic solutions were not searched for to the “Semite’ conflict between Israel, one of the top producers of ‘terminator’ weapons, and the Arab world. Finally we entered an age of unending war with no end in sight, as electronic industries make huge profits setting vigilante cameras and manufacturing robotic weapons.
In the age of civilizations the fundamental ‘Paradox of History’ was the extinction of eusocial civilizations based in wor(l)ds that produce mainly life=human goods by weapons and wars caused by metal-civilizations based in hierarchical castes who use of weapons and money as languages of power. In the age of nations the same process takes place but guided by waves of machines=weapons, which accelerate their professional evolution and the extinctive process of Eusocial Organisms of History.
Since now the evoution of technological information accelerates to a mere 72 years cycle that we shall describe schematically in this post.
The ‘negative side effects’ of each of the final ‘boom’ ages of reproduction and evolution of machines, weapons and money, of the ‘wealth of nations’, which implies machines not only enhance our life but compete and displace human labor and soldiers, is the reality of modern history nobody wants to talk about or even publish, since Adam Smith established the economic dogma that all machines are good, and the more we have the better, because they are money, the invisible hand of go(l)d, we must not argue. We prefer to be optimist, to hide our sins, to ignore the suffering of the people money and machines rule. But denial has never changed the consequences of those cycles for mankind…
For that reason, scientists, economists and policy-makers need to understand those cycles (nt.4) and work together in the design of a global economical model that controls the bad fruits of the tree of science, the excesses of the free electronic reproduction of money and the evolution of nuclear weapons, while fostering clean energies and technologies that enhance the life of man in this planet.
For that reason, also this web has two sides, the side of economics, dedicated to a mathematical analysis of those cycles, and the side of History dedicated to study the ‘people’ who invented economics, their relationship with mankind, and the consequences for human life of this cycles and the evolution of money and machines, which we explain in the screens and articles dedicated to the cycles of history. Since while money and machines are always ‘good’ foreconomists, they have dual values for ‘historians’, which have been explained since the age of Genesis, when the first forms of ‘metal’, golden apples and bronze swords appeared.
The financial->Military->Industrial Complex: keynesian militarism.
How the capitalist system comes out of those crisis?
Guns instead of butter. And to that aim a newspeak is created to explain why we don’t need a welfare state but a military state to keep making machines, now in the form of weapon.
Today this newspeak is called Keynesian militarism. In the 30s it was called fascism. In the 1860s it was called colonialism.
The problem though is that weapons need an enemy and so we choose the poorest people of the world which should be easier to kill: Africans and South-Asians in the I colonial age of protofascism;
Slavs and Jewish peasants in the 2nd age of fascism; and now Muslims in one of the poorest countries of the world, Afghanistan.
So America which now has been a decade under Keynesian militarism since the arrival of the bushes to power has toppled the budgets of Mr. Hitler, the great Keynesian militarist of the 30s, and those of Disraeli, the great keynesian militarism of the 1860s.
650 billion $ of budget this year, and more than 1 trillion $ has been spent in the wars of Afghanistan and Iraq.
As we forecasted 2 decades ago in our books, today America is a fascist nation, whose military budget equates that of the entire planet combined, and this is even a bigger proportion than Germany or Britain at the height of fascism and colonialism.
And there is no come back, because America has today only two product: speculative money and weapons or violent, hate speeches (mass-media).
This is therefore the end of America as a democracy and the beginning of American fascism as a mode of life, which the world will suffer for years to come.
The newspeak of the system today is far more sophisticated, so we have islamophobia because those are the guinea pigs. When in the 30s fascism killed my people in catalonia and sent my sephardim grand father to mauthausen the propaganda was easy and believed by all. So it was the idea that colonialism was civilizing Negroes and getting rid of Indian enemies with armored trains.
We the Spaniards were primitive, catholic fundamentalists that the west sacrificed. Today this is happening with the ‘moros’. Those dirty abusers of female species and haters of Jews, who as a rabbi put it recently in Tv-hate speeches at fox deserve to die, because a single nail of our superior technological humans ‘is worth one billion Arab lives’.
But of course the newspeak of Tvs tell us that we are creating democracy in Afghanistan and Iraq and that is why we spend 1 trillion there.
1929+72=2001; 1937+71=2008, 1939+72=2011, beginning of III world war. The new Spaniards: Arab democrats
The cycle is precise. The 1929 crisis was in 2001, with the crash of e-money. Then keynesian militarism started in small nations and grew after the 1937=2008 crisis showed 8 years latter (short cycle of economics) that only butter (new deal) or cannons (world war) could get us out of the crisis.
The world chose then and now cannons and so within two years III world war had started. Now III world war has started with the choice of Mr. Obama for keynesian militarism.
There are not so many victims yet… The machine of black holes at CERN has not yet made them (2014 is the new date) and that could be the machine that kill us all with a single shot, but the newspeak of scientists have sold it as an instrument of research. The more obvious case though is Lybia, where as in Spain in the 1936 civil war, a dictator is massacring thousands of people and democracies=plutocracies who were making big deals with Gadaffi have put at work their tools of ‘caring and distraction’, assemblies of placebo measures and condemnations but not a single plane has gone there to defend democrats as nobody helped the spaniards who fought for democracy. Of course, at the end the Spaniards felt into the hands of the only people that helped them, communists and so the Arabs will fall in the hands of Mullahs that help them to organize. But this is also good for Keynesian militarism. We need Iran to have the bomb and the mullahs to take on the failed revolutions for us to prove that they are primitive enough to deserve death under our automated terminator squadrons of death. And this is what we are doing. We are not helping those revolutions because we need absolute monarchies to buy weapons and mullahs and terrorists and this our bankers and military industries know and the Tv disguises. So we are fighting for democracy with predators killing peasants in the poorest nation of Asia, Afghanistan and we are fighting for democracy allowing Gadaffi to massacre people with the same chuptzah we fought for democracy in Spain, with an embargo of weapons that only affected the Republicans while British petroleum and exxon gave 10 times more money in oil supplies to Franco than the Great Keynesian Militarism Hitler did in tanks. But of course, we are righteous, all this must be done with the proper admonitions of our ministries of defense and justice, who are voicing out that Gadaffi must go, without doing anything as we criticized franco while giving him our oil for free.
Yet after what is happening in Lybia, where in Europe ONGs and workers escaping talk of thousands of people dead, of death squadrons of chadian mercenaries going home after home executing people, of mass graves, and NOT A SINGLE PLANE OF OUR AWESOME 650 BILLION BUDGET IN KEYNESIAN MILITARISM has bombed Gadaffi’s pathetic army of thugs and murderers who are killing normal people asking for democracy, any pretension that our Keynesian Militarism – what the great inventor of this form of coming out of Crisis called Mr. Hitler named without orwellian newspeak fascism – here introduced by the Bushes, is nothing but murder is an oxymoron. Indeed, the west is loosing all credibility as the most corrupted plutocratic system since the times of the Great Keynesian Militarist mr. hitler.
For 20 years i fought with ideas against this future, Biohistory and bioeconomics have been censored for 20 years. All what I have to say now, when it is a done deal is that when keynesian militarism ends the III world war that 2 years after the 1937 crisis of 2008 (since the 29 crisis was the 2001 nasdaq bubble explosion), there will be hundreds of millions of corpses including those of the 10th Holocaust cycle. As always at the end of those cycles Keynesian militarism is applied to our own citizens that were blind to the massacres of the poor.
But of course, the human sheeple will deny till the end what is happening, watching the fictions of their Tvs. They will follow their leaders to the cliff of extinction and when it is required to run towards the gas chambers of neofascism as the jewish did in Auschwitz, they will embrace the weapons of the singularity age and the terminator armies of drone and shout ‘long life to death’ as they did in the previous cycles. that is the human condition, whose eviL memes are imprinted in the tabula rassa of their brains.
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1 The 72 years Generational Cycle is the mean biological cycle of human beings. It was first used to study patterns in American History by Strauss and Howe: ‘Generations’ W. Morrow 1991.
2 Kondratieff analyzed the Industrial Revolution in Russia, concluding that for 50 years the train was the engine of its development; thus establishing a 50 year cycle of economical activity that bears his name. However in 3rd World countries machines arrive latter, when they have already evolved in the Industrial World. So the Russian cycle of steam was shorter than the World’s cycle. When we make an exhaustive analysis of the cycle in the Western World, where those machines were discovered, we find a longer 72 years generational cycle.
3 The relationships between the economic, technological, political, cultural, r=evolutionary and war cycles of modern History, were studied by this author exhaustively in his pioneer, scholar books, published in Europe, ‘The cycles of History and Economics’; and in America, ‘Bio-economics, Bio-History: A theory of Unification’ © 94, 97. They forecast the end of the 1929-2001 economic cycle, which would be followed by a period of economical crisis, stock-crashes and World Wars. The English version of those books is now available under the title, ‘go(l)d & eviL: economic crises’ at www.goldandevil.com.
4 Any mathematical cycle has ‘real causes’ and so does the 72 year cycle of stock-crashes, origin of the present worldwide economical downturn. Yet only by knowing those causes we can act on the cycle; hence the enormous importance of knowing the causes not the consequences, the reasons not the effects of those cycles, if we want to change history…
